GLP-1 drugs outsold generative AI in 2025 on Exponential View's own estimate of AI revenue
Exponential View says GLP-1 sales reached $76 billion in 2025, ahead of its own $63 billion estimate for generative AI. The $13 billion lead rests on that estimate, and the retention studies the piece cites show heavy attrition.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption11
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
Kalshi and its investor Paradigm sat with Coinbase, Ripple and Chainlink at the White House, one day before the CFTC's new advisory committee met. The seating chart is the substance.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Horizontal software sells for under a third of infrastructure's revenue multiple in a16z's September data
a16z's September State of Markets deck puts horizontal software at a median 2.7 times trailing revenue, against 9.1 times for infrastructure. Its own growth data held steady through the selloff, so horizontal founders now raise against a price that fell further than their businesses did.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
Product managers still deliver stories, argues a former LinkedIn PM writing for a16z
An ex-LinkedIn product manager writing for a16z demotes the 120-page spec the author once wrote and names the story as a PM's most important output. AI changes how teams code, the author writes, but the story still has to survive being retold without the PM in the room.
Reality
- Evidence25
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap
- Not scored
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
buildConfirmed2 publishers The Sequence puts the figure at $12.9 billion. No model pull changes on day one, which is why the neutrality assumption buried in most build pipelines is worth writing down while testing it is still cheap.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
a16z and the DeFi Education Fund ask Peirce to exempt DEXs that clear four tests
The joint letter to SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce defines a qualifying decentralized exchange by four tests, three of them checkable against deployed code and the fourth a judgement about who holds discretionary privileges.
Reality
- Evidence33
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives82
- Confidence41
A Ford director moved her family's AI assistant to ChatGPT using a guide she wrote herself
Whitney Stefko Dover spent months refining a Claude agent that ran her household, then rebuilt it in ChatGPT Work and called the move painless, because she had already written down how the assistant worked and what it connected to.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption14
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives30
- Confidence55
buildOne report1 publisher Temporal's $550M round values durable execution at 2.5x its February price
Lightspeed co-led a $550 million Series E on September 14th, seven months after Temporal's $5 billion Series D. The operating metrics behind the markup are Temporal's own: 4,300 paying customers and 1.9 trillion billable actions in August.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives78
- Confidence52
buildOne report1 publisher Field insight reached Palantir's platform only if an FDE knew the right product engineer
Kepler's Vinoo, who led the rotation that turned about 250 Palantir engineers into forward deployed ones, writes that nothing carried customer findings back into the core product except who knew whom. He now runs the function inside product.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
a16z draws the build-vs-buy line at the edge of the incumbent's own record
Salesforce, Docusign, Atlassian and Klaviyo are all marketing agents that act on their own records. Andreessen Horowitz's case for building anything on top now rests on whether your job needs data those records never held.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives76
- Confidence55
ChatGPT Work's real ask is your Slack, and somebody has to say yes on everyone's behalf
OpenAI's agent product pays off in proportion to the access it is given. That makes the rollout an access-control project, and the person holding the keys is usually a team lead.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption21
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives79
- Confidence48
Flock's $8.3B asset is a searchable national archive. Its liability is the same archive
One officer logged more than 700 unauthorized searches on his estranged wife's car. The feature that made that possible is the one a16z and Tiger paid about 16 times revenue for.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption86
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives68
- Confidence60
KPMG counted Tether's gold. The buffer is 3.7%, and it is already being spent on AI
A Big Four audit answers the backing question for $183 billion of USDT. It does not turn a $6.8 billion excess into a treasury-grade cushion.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives74
- Confidence33