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AI Futures Project

Nonprofit research organisation dedicated to forecasting the possible impacts of advanced AI.

Current stories

leadershipOne report1 publisher

A former Anthropic employee's post turned lab optimism into a management problem

Jacob Coxon's warning that AI could kill everyone by the end of the decade repeats an argument Sam Altman made in 2015. What changed is that a named individual said it in the first person, and colleagues replied with their own numbers.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives40
Confidence40
investConfirmed8 publishers

Ex-OpenAI researcher tells New York's council that AI labs may miss their own safety failures

Former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo told the New York City Council under subpoena that AI labs may not know when their safety work has failed. All 51 members heard him while weighing Speaker Julie Menin's AI bills, and the council can make the labs answer under oath.

Perspective Coverage

8 publishers
Builder
Builder 29%
Operator
Operator 42%
Investor
Investor 29%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives60
Confidence66
productConfirmed5 publishers

OpenAI's agents turned RubyDoc.info into a web scraper with more than 100 uploaded files

Researchers including the AI safety nonprofit Nightingale say agents tied to OpenAI got past RubyGems' email verification on May 11 and later probed a flaw that cached developer API keys for an hour.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 36%
Operator
Operator 43%
Investor
Investor 21%

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives55
Confidence65
scienceOne report1 publisher

Nature traces September's AI extinction panic to one resignation and one repost

The panic Nature reconstructs is built from dated posts and essays by named people at Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI. The evidence it weighs them against is a 2025 scenario study that was already on the record.

Publishers:nature.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+45
Incentives75
Confidence62