CoreWeave's default swaps imply a nearly 63% chance of default within five years, up from 30%
CoreWeave's 2031 bonds yield above 16% and its default swaps trade near 1,000 basis points, Channel NewsAsia reported. At that yield a $10 billion raise would cost $1.6 billion a year in interest, three-quarters of the $2.13 billion loss analysts expect this year.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 23%
- Investor
- Investor 65%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence72
Although CoreWeave's backlog and new commitments top 2.5 times its debt, its 2031 junk bonds yield about 16%
CoreWeave, which has never turned a profit and carries about $50 billion of debt per LSEG, has seen its shares and bonds tumble. An explainer links the slide to a wider tech selloff, though IG's Axel Rudolph puts the doubt in funding.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
UBS starts Core Scientific and Applied Digital at Buy on a 19 GW power shortfall for 2027
UBS began coverage of Core Scientific and Applied Digital at Buy, citing 57 GW of data center capacity needed in 2027 against 38 GW with confirmed power. Its forecast of about 80% annual EBITDA growth through 2029 needs sites that already have grid connections, because new requests take years to clear.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
buildOne report1 publisher Applied Digital's power company Base Electron files confidentially for a U.S. IPO
Base Electron, the power company Applied Digital formed, confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO on October 9 around a planned 1.2-gigawatt North Dakota gas plant. The draft registration is not public, so investors cannot yet see the plant's revenue, margins or financing.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption15
- Hype gap0
- Incentives75
- Confidence55
Applied Digital holds about $36 billion of contracted AI hosting revenue and plans to bring over 600 MW online in the next 12 months. On Crypto Briefing's figures that is about $25.5 million per leased megawatt, and the company is still booking a GAAP loss while it builds.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
ChronoScale's $1 billion contract run-rate is 14 times the revenue it booked last year
ChronoScale says its signed AI compute contracts now annualize to $1 billion, against $71.6 million of revenue in its last fiscal year. The figure counts signed agreements, so the stock depends on capacity still being built turning them into cash.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives70
- Confidence40
AI industry money tops $800,000 for Mike Rounds in a race he already leads
Most of the money reached the South Dakota senator as outside spending from Defend American Jobs, a group funded by a super PAC financed by Andreessen Horowitz, in a state whose legislature has already made hyperscalers pay more for water and power.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives80
- Confidence55
CoreWeave anchors 15 years of AI capacity at a converted Niagara Falls cryptomine
Blockfusion turned a decommissioned power plant into a cryptomining campus, and its subsidiary has now signed CoreWeave to a definitive 15-year lease. The megawatt and revenue figures still date from June.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives76
- Confidence44