New York Fed President John Williams still backs one more rate hike this year, he told Bloomberg on Tuesday. Cointelegraph reported that he sees AI hardware supply taking over two years to catch up with demand, with rates unlikely to slow AI investment.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 57%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, a voter this year, said Monday she prefers smaller, faster rate adjustments after September's quarter-point hike. Cryptopolitan counts 15 of 33 major central banks tightening in six months, a 45% share.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence64
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says oil could settle at $40-50 a barrel once the Iran war ends, a date he says he does not know. Without that date, investors get a direction for oil, yields and mortgage rates and have to price the wait themselves.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
Each explanation for the 10-year's climb to 5.23% points to borrowing costs staying high
US 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.23% on Friday, the highest since June 2007, while consumer spending tracked toward 4% growth. A curve rising from 4.90% on the 2-year to above 5.51% on the 30-year fits a growing economy better than a frightened one.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
July CPI at 0.1% and flat PPI took the near-term rate scare off the table. What is left holding up records above 7,800 is a bet on how long GPUs stay useful.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 24%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Three regional Fed presidents voted to hike against a quarter annualizing at 0.49%
The 3.4% headline that drew three dissents for immediate hikes is carried by nine older months running near 4.4% annualized. Clearing those months out of the window takes nine more monthly prints.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
The average that capped the 2022 bear market is overhead again near $63.2k, and this week's Fed minutes and Japan data decide whether the level holds any authority.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence48
Home Depot, Target and Walmart report on consecutive mornings into a thin data calendar. Their guidance, not the macro releases, is where tariff pass-through shows up first.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence55