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Independent London-based economic research firm providing macroeconomic analysis and forecasts on markets, interest rates, and global economies.
The UK economy grew 0.1% in August, defying forecasts of a slight contraction, the ONS figures show. Chancellor John Healey is promising relief on business costs in a Budget two weeks away, on the condition that it is paid for inside that Budget.
Reality
China's producer prices rose 5% in September from a year earlier, the fastest since June 2022, while consumer prices rose 0.9%. The 4.1-point gap leaves manufacturers holding costs households will not absorb, though neither report published margin data.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
China's debt interest takes about 19% of central government spending, up from 12% in 2014, Conference Board and CSIS estimates show. Fortune's report does not include revenue or the deficit, so a squeeze on fiscal room is inferred.
Reality
Kpler says about 40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as exports regain prewar levels. Iran's own exports are blockaded to almost nothing, and it can still strike the onshore oil assets that now carry more of the flow.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
UK diesel averaged a record 200.01p a litre on Friday, the RAC said, up 40.5% since the Iran war began in late February. Because the shortage sits in damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia, fleet operators setting next quarter's fuel budget have weak grounds to plan on a quick fall.
Reality
Nearly 70 Dundee students lost their rooms in late July when the owner of the 116-room Marketgait Apartments block went bust. The failure put the cost on the tenants, who had to find and pay for new rooms themselves with term only weeks away.
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Bill Gross told investors to own no bonds except one-year Treasury bills at 4.55%, citing about $84 trillion of credit and federal debt at 100% of GDP. Holding only bills gives up the gain longer bonds would make in a slowdown, and Gross himself expects the debt to bring one.
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Britain's two-year SONIA swap rose 27 basis points in a month to 4.68%, a move a broker says adds about a third of a point to fixed-mortgage funding. Those swaps, more than the 30-year gilt hovering near 6%, set what UK borrowers pay when cheap fixes expire.
Reality
Capital Economics says Britain's housebuilding miss could cut £1.6bn from John Healey's fiscal headroom by erasing the OBR's planning-reform boost. Builders blame mortgage rates, and a loan scheme for buyers helps his Budget only if the OBR scores it as adding homes.
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Brent near $108 and futures pricing a 92.3% chance of a Fed hike took the 10-year to 5.014% intraday. Capital Economics says the United States is not in a fiscal crisis yet because nominal growth still beats debt service.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
The San Francisco Fed's Adam Shapiro flagged the crossover in Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The margin is about half a percent, and S&P Global expects the six biggest spenders to run negative operating cash flow through 2027.
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James Reilly's September 10 report has the S&P 500 cracking next year and eventually falling at least 30% from its high, while Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's committee still carries a year-end target of 8,000.
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James Reilly's path has the S&P 500 up 7.7% by December and down 21% by the end of 2027, a net loss of about 15% for anyone who holds through both legs. Ruchir Sharma's 5% trigger is three basis points away.
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CME FedWatch put the odds of an increase at the Sept. 16 meeting near 90% after August's core reading, and Capital Economics expects two further quarter-point moves by March 2027. The August data predates $100 oil.
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A Pew study puts that band at 22.3% of originations in 2024, while scores of 700 and above gained 24.9 points over the same period. Existing home sales are now running at a 3.98 million annual pace.
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The Office for National Statistics put July growth at 0.4% against forecasts of none, and money markets now price Bank rate at 4.75% by July 2027. Oil and the European Central Bank did most of that work.
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A synchronized surge to two-decade-high yields has made the term premium, rather than AI concentration, the exposure worth re-examining this quarter.
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Reported strikes on Ras Laffan and a Hormuz blockade cut Qatari revenues 23.5% in a single quarter. The gap between the two published GDP forecasts is the price of the politics.
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