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Commodity Futures Trading Commission

U.S. federal agency that regulates derivatives markets, including futures, options, and swaps on commodities and financial instruments.

Current stories

investConfirmed9 publishers

Prediction markets get a seat at the crypto table, not the gambling one

Kalshi and its investor Paradigm sat with Coinbase, Ripple and Chainlink at the White House, one day before the CFTC's new advisory committee met. The seating chart is the substance.

Perspective Coverage

9 publishers
Builder
Builder 19%
Operator
Operator 38%
Investor
Investor 43%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives65
Confidence55
investConfirmed17 publishers

Retiring senators Lummis and Tillis leave crypto's Clarity Act to the next Congress

Crypto's 635-page Clarity Act stalled in the Senate with no realistic path back before year-end, Cato's Ryan Chan-Wei wrote. He blames an ethics dispute over conflicts at the highest levels of government, and that dispute will meet whatever bill the next Congress writes.

Perspective Coverage

17 publishers
Builder
Builder 16%
Operator
Operator 41%
Investor
Investor 43%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption18
Hype gap+15
Incentives65
Confidence62
investConfirmed2 publishers

Token buybacks on working crypto networks fall outside the Howey test, SEC staff say

SEC staff said on September 25 that token buybacks on functioning networks and staking receipts that only record ownership do not create investment contracts. Because they are staff views, live networks can plan repurchases around them while a future SEC or a private plaintiff could still contest them.

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption45
Hype gap+30
Incentives50
Confidence70
investConfirmed3 publishers

Kristin Smith will run the Blockchain Association while still leading Solana's policy institute

Kristin Smith becomes the Blockchain Association's interim CEO on October 17 and keeps her job as president of the Solana Policy Institute. The industry-wide group will share its chief executive with one chain's lobby while the Clarity Act sits stalled in the Senate.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 13%
Operator
Operator 45%
Investor
Investor 42%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives60
Confidence70
investOne report1 publisher

Crypto's market-structure bill finished eleven votes short of the Senate's 60

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act lost 49-50 on September 15. Coinbase fell 12% and Circle 13% the same day, at the end of an election-cycle lobbying effort cryptobriefing estimates at $100m to $225m.

Reality

Evidence28
Adoption18
Hype gap+34
Incentives68
Confidence32
investOne report1 publisher

Twelve points of Clarity Act odds cost bitcoin at least $1,586 before the cloture vote

Polymarket took the Clarity Act from about 14% to nearly 30% and back to 18%, and bitcoin's $79,586 high on September 14 unwound below $78,000 by the next morning. The down leg values full passage near 14%.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption20
Hype gap+35
Incentives60
Confidence40
investOne report1 publisher

Cboe wants 3x bitcoin ETFs, and it has to ask the SEC the slow way

A Cboe BZX filing for triple-leveraged bitcoin and ether funds falls outside the exchange's generic listing standards, so it needs a bespoke Section 19(b) rule change.

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption12
Hype gap+12
Incentives62
Confidence52