Standard
A US Bureau of Labor Statistics index measuring changes in prices consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, the primary US inflation gauge.
Traders put a 24.9% chance on a 25 basis point Fed hike on Oct. 28 after September CPI rose 0.6% month over month. On $100 million of floating-rate debt a 25 basis point hike adds $250,000 a year; weighted at 24.9%, the October share is about $62,000.
Reality
Economists expect Wednesday's September CPI to show a 0.6% monthly rise as Iran-war energy costs push Brent to about $105. RSM warns forecasts may undershoot, and the Fed's October hike depends on the core reading.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
Truflation forecasts September US headline CPI at 3.6% and core at 2.4%, a tenth below the 3.7% and 2.5% consensus in its Oct. 9 report. The gap is wider on the monthly headline, 0.48% against 0.6%.
Reality
The Fed took its target range to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and raised its median PCE forecast to 3.7% in the same document, so the real cost of holding a metal that pays no coupon moved by about a sixth of a point.
Perspective Coverage
14 publishersReality
Wireless telephone services rose 5.9% in August, the most the BLS has ever recorded for the category, and without that one line core inflation rounds to the 0.2% economists expected. Traders moved hike odds to 85% anyway.
Perspective Coverage
10 publishersReality
Kevin Hassett, the White House's top economist, says three-month core inflation near 2% leaves the Fed little room to raise rates. Wednesday's August PCE release will test his window on the inflation gauge the Fed itself prefers.
Reality
Tiff Macklem says elevated energy prices are adding persistence to headline inflation, with CPI at 3% and new tariffs on course to push fourth-quarter growth below 1%. His commitment runs in both directions.
Reality
The Fed's September 16 move to 3.75-4% took the two-year note to nearly 4.75%, which is roughly the top of the range plus the 80 basis points futures have priced. Buyers get carry now. Whether they keep it comes down to August's 0.4% monthly CPI.
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Cryptobriefing puts the 30-year Treasury at 5.33% intraday and calls it a windfall for life insurers. The peer income figure it cites implies a book already earning about 4.0%, so the pickup is nearer 1.3 points.
Reality
The Fed's Q2 accounts show household money-market holdings up 12.8% over the year to $5.1 trillion at yields below 3.75% after fees, with August CPI at 3.4% and the small-CD balances savers control flat for seven months.
Reality
CME FedWatch puts 88.5% on a quarter-point hike to 3.75% after CPI printed 3.4%. The 11.5% left over is a hold, and UBS's Paul Donovan says that outcome would put a risk premium into bond pricing. Trump wants the hold.
Reality
A 3.4% headline CPI print has pushed odds on a September 15-16 Fed hike into the high 80s. Copper is off a record above $14,500 a tonne, and the two reasons given for that record, tight supply and tariff risk, are unchanged.
Reality
The BEA publishes its annual national accounts revision on September 30, fourteen days after the FOMC votes, and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both model it taking 0.1 to 0.2 points off core inflation back to 2021.
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CME FedWatch put the odds of an increase at the Sept. 16 meeting near 90% after August's core reading, and Capital Economics expects two further quarter-point moves by March 2027. The August data predates $100 oil.
Reality
Processed intermediate goods rose 11.5 percent over 12 months while the prices firms finally charge rose 5.4 percent. Diesel accounts for most of August's monthly move, and the measure that excludes distributor margins accounts for the rest.
Reality
Truflation's September reading of 2.33% sits 1.07 points below the BLS print for August. The platform's own record of forecasting official releases within 0.09 points makes that gap a claim with a settlement date.
Reality
Isabelle Mateos y Lago's revised forecast starts tightening in December 2026, and it leans on a headline CPI of 3.4% whose core component is running a full point lower at 2.5%.
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The 3.4% headline that drew three dissents for immediate hikes is carried by nine older months running near 4.4% annualized. Clearing those months out of the window takes nine more monthly prints.
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The steepest annual decline since 1963 is being credited to most favored nation deals. The contracts are not public, the models are not live, and the index measures pharmacy receipts.
Reality
The bank's own estimate is 25%. The more useful detail is that the market's hike probability travelled from 12% to 45% on oil headlines, not on inflation prints.
Reality