IREN shares rose 5% premarket on a reported Anthropic cloud contract that neither company has confirmed. CoinShares puts miners' AI and HPC backlog above $100 billion with only about 550 MW billing, so a signature is the first of several steps to revenue.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption14
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
UBS starts Core Scientific and Applied Digital at Buy on a 19 GW power shortfall for 2027
UBS began coverage of Core Scientific and Applied Digital at Buy, citing 57 GW of data center capacity needed in 2027 against 38 GW with confirmed power. Its forecast of about 80% annual EBITDA growth through 2029 needs sites that already have grid connections, because new requests take years to clear.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
EIA sees US power demand climbing to a record 4,356 billion kWh by 2027
The EIA projects US electricity demand will set records in both 2026 and 2027, reaching 4,356 billion kWh. National growth is under 4% over the two years, so the power constraint on AI building shows up locally, in regional prices and in what a connected megawatt sells for.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Top three bitcoin mining countries cede 0.8 points of hashrate share to the rest of the world
Hashrate Index puts the US, Russia and China at 65.4% of bitcoin hashrate, down from 66.2%, as Russia gained 8 EH/s and the US lost 10. Russia took back most of what the US lost, so mining is about as concentrated by country as it was in June.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
CME's 36-month GPU futures put a forward price on the compute bitcoin miners now sell
CME plans to list two Nvidia GPU compute futures on October 5, pending regulatory approval, with prices running 36 months forward. Bitcoin miners that moved into AI hosting can hedge with them only if what they are paid moves with a GPU rental index.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives78
- Confidence45
Bitcoin miners trade at 13 times sales on AI capacity that is 14% switched on
Public miners have announced $70 billion to $100 billion of AI and HPC contracts. Spread across 12-to-15-year terms that is roughly $6 billion a year, and 550 of about 4,000 contracted megawatts are earning it today.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
Grayscale swaps its bitcoin miner index for compute that earns five to eight times per megawatt-hour
The renamed GCPU tracks an index of high-performance computing firms, half of them GPU cloud operators and half converts from mining, on Grayscale's view that grid-connected capacity stays scarce for years.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives78
- Confidence42
The IEA puts 424 of the next 530 TWh of data center load inside the US and China
Global data center electricity use goes from about 415 TWh in 2024 to roughly 945 TWh in 2030 on the agency's April 2025 projection, and the transmission and generation to serve it take five to ten years against a data center's 18 to 24 months.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Converting miners' 3,450MW of contracted but not-yet-billing AI capacity could cost $28bn to $52bn
CoinShares marks stabilised data centre capacity at $27m a megawatt and energised mining capacity at $3m, and the conversion cost in between explains why Core Scientific, Keel, Cipher and IREN are walking away from hashrate.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
CoreWeave anchors 15 years of AI capacity at a converted Niagara Falls cryptomine
Blockfusion turned a decommissioned power plant into a cryptomining campus, and its subsidiary has now signed CoreWeave to a definitive 15-year lease. The megawatt and revenue figures still date from June.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives76
- Confidence44
CoinShares prices AI compute at three times bitcoin mining on the same megawatt
Its second-quarter report puts the network hashrate about 50% below trend and blames the post-halving cycle and Texas power prices alongside the AI pivot, so the 50% measures the halving and the power bill as much as it measures who is outbidding whom.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence45
Core Scientific paid $41.9 million to cancel 15 exahashes of new mining chips
With CoinShares putting the second-quarter cash cost of a bitcoin at about $75,500 against a $58,400 price, public miners are switching off rigs they own and paying cash to cancel the ones they ordered.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives63
- Confidence54
Bitcoin's 22% rally paid the median miner 1.8%
Revenue per petahash rose almost exactly in step with the coin in August, so the miners' equity gap says more about how they are funding AI build-outs than about the margin on a mined bitcoin. Luxor's forward curve offers no relief before February.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption67
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives58
- Confidence57
Hyperscale Data reprices Dowagiac's power at $3 million a megawatt-year
Dowagiac's bitcoin miners went dark on September 1 so that 20 megawatts could be leased to an unnamed California neocloud at roughly $3 million per megawatt-year. The customer's cash in the door so far is $10.6 million.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+58
- Incentives75
- Confidence38
Situational Awareness stakes $13.67bn on ex-bitcoin miners owning the AI bottleneck
Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund went from $5.52bn at the end of 2025 to $13.67bn in ex-miners and power by March, against roughly $7.46bn of puts on semiconductors, which prices interconnect queues above silicon.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives58
- Confidence34
Bitcoin miners are selling coins below cost to become AI landlords
Peter Schiff says AI bids against Bitcoin for capital, power and space. The contract arithmetic suggests that at the level of the individual site, the argument is already over.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption64
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence38
Two auctions, one week: the disclosure gap buried in Situational Awareness's $30bn July
The Journal's reconstruction shows the fund shopping its Anthropic stake and its leveraged book at the same time, and telling only one set of buyers. That is a pricing problem for every AI secondary.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives66
- Confidence54
Public miners are unplugging hash faster than the network, and rebilling it as colocation
The listed cohort's realized hashrate fell 13.4 percent in six months against a 10.6 percent network decline. Two of its members now earn most of their revenue from something other than mining.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence54