Fairshake's affiliate Defend American Jobs has reported $46.7 million in Ohio Senate spending, 55.6% above its $30 million pledge. Added to $5.9 million from the Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund, the total is $52.6 million.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives58
- Confidence74
Kalshi and its investor Paradigm sat with Coinbase, Ripple and Chainlink at the White House, one day before the CFTC's new advisory committee met. The seating chart is the substance.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Pretty Good Policy for Zcash has registered Divij Pandya as its sole Washington lobbyist on a $750,000 first-year budget. The move takes Zcash's policy work out of developer lab ZODL and puts it in a separate group that looks to Zcash Community Grants for its money.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 26%
- Operator
- Operator 46%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence70
SEC staff said on September 25 that token buybacks on functioning networks and staking receipts that only record ownership do not create investment contracts. Because they are staff views, live networks can plan repurchases around them while a future SEC or a private plaintiff could still contest them.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives50
- Confidence70
Kristin Smith becomes the Blockchain Association's interim CEO on October 17 and keeps her job as president of the Solana Policy Institute. The industry-wide group will share its chief executive with one chain's lobby while the Clarity Act sits stalled in the Senate.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 42%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence70
Curtis asks Grassley and Durbin to subpoena Trump Jr. over the family's crypto ventures
Senator John Curtis wants the Judiciary Committee to compel testimony from Donald Trump Jr. and Hunter Biden over their family business dealings. Durbin backed the request, though a subpoena still needs Grassley.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
The Clarity Act's 126 Democratic concessions bought zero Democratic votes
The Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act 49-50 after a final draft absorbed 126 changes the Democratic caucus had asked for, and every Democrat and independent still voted against proceeding.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
CLARITY needs seven Democrats even if all four Republican holdouts come back
Cloture on H.R. 3633 failed 49-50 on Sept. 15 with every yes vote Republican. Add the four Republican noes back to the yes column and the count reaches 53, still seven short of the 60 the Senate requires.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Crypto's market-structure bill finished eleven votes short of the Senate's 60
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act lost 49-50 on September 15. Coinbase fell 12% and Circle 13% the same day, at the end of an election-cycle lobbying effort cryptobriefing estimates at $100m to $225m.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives68
- Confidence32
Twelve points of Clarity Act odds cost bitcoin at least $1,586 before the cloture vote
Polymarket took the Clarity Act from about 14% to nearly 30% and back to 18%, and bitcoin's $79,586 high on September 14 unwound below $78,000 by the next morning. The down leg values full passage near 14%.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Coinbase's 8% jump prices full Clarity Act passage at about a 47% move
Senate Republicans put out a revised 635-page crypto bill, Polymarket's odds of 2026 passage roughly doubled to 30%, and Coinbase rose 8% on Monday. That move implies a number for what traders think the statute is worth.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives68
- Confidence38
CFTC starts drafting crypto rules from authority it already has, because the Clarity Act is stuck
Chairman Michael Selig has told staff to work out what existing authority can carry. His innovation committee's first meeting produced no rule text and one candid caveat about enforcement.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption14
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives74
- Confidence44
Storm's reductio: if the DOJ theory catches him, it catches OpenAI and Google
Roman Storm says the theory that convicted him would also reach Google and OpenAI. It is a post, not a brief, and the count he was convicted on is the one his analogy fits worst.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives78
- Confidence38