Project
Saudi Arabia's main overland crude pipeline, running from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, with capacity of about 5 million barrels per day to bypass Hormuz.
Gulf producers have restored about 80% of Hormuz crude flows with shuttle runs and a partly restarted Saudi pipeline, Seoul Economic Daily reports. Insurance on those runs and Iran's continued force in the strait keep prices on course to stay elevated through year-end.
Reality
Gulf producers are paying $30 million to $40 million a voyage to shuttle crude out of Hormuz, about $15 to $20 a barrel before insurance. They are taking it out of their own margins, and how long that lasts depends on repairs to a damaged Saudi pipeline.
Reality
Crude opened Monday higher after President Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal, with December Brent at $98.69 and November WTI at $93.78. Brent has won back 87% of last week's drop and WTI only 44%, held back by talk of a U.S. diesel export ban.
Reality
International oil prices have passed $100 while the US Navy narrows its Hormuz escort windows to two a day, and the overland pipeline that was the alternative to the strait is offline after a drone attack.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
Brent near $108 and futures pricing a 92.3% chance of a Fed hike took the 10-year to 5.014% intraday. Capital Economics says the United States is not in a fiscal crisis yet because nominal growth still beats debt service.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
Saad al-Kaabi says Scott Bessent is wrong that pipeline expansions will strand the Strait of Hormuz, and he warns that a disruption there takes oil to $150. The lines in question move crude, and Qatar ships gas.
Reality
Both routes that carried Gulf barrels around the closed Strait of Hormuz have now been hit, one by a drone and the other by a Houthi takeover of the Red Sea chokepoint. Oil is at $110 a barrel.
Reality
September exports came back above 4 million barrels a day from a decade low of 2.4 million in August. The entire Saudi export book now leaves through two Gulf terminals and a transfer anchorage inside the Strait of Hormuz.
Reality
Trump left Camp David early on Saturday after the first missile reached Riyadh since hostilities resumed. The contract on a US invasion of Iran by the end of 2026 went from 16 percent to 16.5 percent YES, a relative move of about 3 percent.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Saudi Arabia has taken one of this year's main Hormuz workarounds out of service. The case for paying to keep spare routes and switchable inputs on hand now gets tested with one option fewer in the stack.
Reality
WTI at about $102 has widened the gap between Singapore product prices and the capped price Korean refiners may charge at home. The industry puts its losses at 5 trillion won. No first settlement has been completed.
Reality
The trade ministry summoned Korea's four refiners on the 14th to weigh paying more of the freight gap on crude from the Americas, Africa and Southeast Asia. September and October cargoes are already more than 90% secured.
Reality
Jet fuel is 83% above its pre-war price and Avelo's chief executive says carriers will have to pass that on. A Q4 travel line sized on last autumn's $290 average domestic seat is now short by about a third.
Reality
Drone attacks shut the East-West pipeline that moves about 4 million barrels a day to Yanbu. WTI added 2.5% to $102, and the industry sources Reuters cited cannot agree whether repairs run five to six weeks or less.
Reality
The trade ministry summoned SK Energy, GS Caltex, S-Oil and HD Hyundai Oilbank on the 14th, with spot Dubai crude up 53% in five weeks and the freight differential rate, once 100% and now 25%, back under review.
Reality
A projectile hit a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on September 12-13, according to a UKMTO advisory, and on the worst days since the conflict began the corridor has carried two million barrels instead of twenty. Brent is above $100.
Reality
Saudi Arabia built the East-West pipeline so its crude could reach the Red Sea without entering Iranian waters. Riyadh says the drones that hit it in early September flew from an Iraqi province on the Iranian border.
Reality
The East-West pipeline had been carrying more than double the Red Sea export volume it moved before the Iran war, and on Friday Saudi Arabia stopped it. Riyadh says it will not retaliate, and Trump says the Houthis called.
Reality
Friday's 2.9% fall prices Monday's first Iran-GCC ministerial since the war began, at a moment when regional exports sit near two-thirds of prewar levels and the Houthis are hitting Saudi Arabia's Red Sea bypass.
Reality
Perim Island splits Bab al-Mandab into two channels. The Houthis now hold it. Crude has crossed $100 on the escalation, while no diverted-tonnage or war-risk premium figure has been published to show cargo has stopped.
Reality