Person
Veteran Wall Street strategist and economist who coined "bond vigilantes" and publishes widely followed market and economic forecasts.
UK 30-year gilt yields hit their highest level since 1998 this week as a global bond sell-off deepened. Economists cited by the Guardian think about half of the £24bn fiscal buffer has already gone before John Healey's first budget on 28 October.
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Bank of America Institute says Americans 55 and over held about $140 trillion in the second quarter, three-quarters of US net worth. Their spending now depends on a stock rally that a few AI companies drove.
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More than 80% of 401(k)s default into mostly cap-weighted target-date funds that buy more of the Magnificent Seven, about 30% of the S&P 500, as they grow. At Amazon, a paper gain on Anthropic supplied almost $17 billion of nearly $30 billion in first-quarter net income.
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Fed policymakers hiked in September against inflation that supplies about 4 points of the 6%-plus nominal growth now outrunning a 5.16% 10-year yield. With the $2 trillion deficit adding about 5% a year to the debt, a slowdown that leaves yields near 5% would push the debt ratio up.
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US 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.23% on Friday, the highest since June 2007, while consumer spending tracked toward 4% growth. A curve rising from 4.90% on the 2-year to above 5.51% on the 30-year fits a growing economy better than a frightened one.
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AARP and the Senior Citizens League project a 2027 Social Security raise of 3.5% to 3.6%, the largest since 2023, with diesel above $6.50 among the drivers. It repays prices already recorded through September, and how far it stretches in 2027 turns on tariffs and chips as much as fuel.
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The CBO baseline that federal interest projections rest on now sits 90 basis points below the market, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget priced $2.7 trillion of annual interest off a smaller gap than that.
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James Reilly's path has the S&P 500 up 7.7% by December and down 21% by the end of 2027, a net loss of about 15% for anyone who holds through both legs. Ruchir Sharma's 5% trigger is three basis points away.
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Robin Brooks says a month of soft activity data failed to pull long yields down, and reads that as thin demand for Treasury paper. Scott Bessent is doubling debt buybacks rather than waiting for the data to help.
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The argument treats bond demand as a fixed pool, so if AI issuers can raise $1.7 trillion at barely wider spreads, the clearing price has to move somewhere, and Yardeni says it moved to the Treasury's own cost of funds.
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The effective rate on federal debt over the past year works out to 3.05%. The average rate actually carried in July was 3.45%, and closing that gap costs about $160 billion a year with no help from the Fed.
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Steve Hanke says a "deadly cocktail" has pushed Treasury yields through the informal 4.5% and 5% markers Scott Bessent defends, and he expects another 50 basis points on the 10-year.
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The first joint US-Japan yen intervention in three decades moved the rate about seven yen and handed much of it back, leaving the carry trade as the live risk.
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