Russell 2000 heads into the vote up 15.1% against a 0.5% average across 11 midterm years
Russell 2000 is up about 15.1% this year, but Furey Research found an average 0.5% gain across 11 midterm years, with gains in only 45% of them. The post-election record bulls cite looks very different once the last four midterms are included.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed about $485 million in a single session, enough to push October's flows below zero. Because that exit is small against the funds' asset base, oil prices and Treasury yields look like the stronger force behind the wider crypto sell-off.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Glassnode's Rafael Schultze-Kraft counts 31.2% of circulating Bitcoin behind exposed public keys, up 222,000 BTC since May while supply grew 64,000 BTC. Exchanges supplied most of that rise, and a venue can cut its share by moving reserves to fresh addresses.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 28%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 32%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Recordkeepers and independent advisors compete for 401(k) savers nearing retirement
Cerulli Associates and Morningstar found 53.4% of advisors who don't prioritize wealth growth rank help converting 401(k) participants a top-three need. Recordkeepers are courting the same savers, so an advisor who turns away small accounts risks the sponsor and the eventual rollover.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives50
- Confidence55
Bitcoin's biggest ETF week in a year coincided with a 29-day Coinbase discount
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.39 billion in their biggest week in a year while Coinbase priced Bitcoin below global venues for 29 straight days. The split means weekly fund flows were a poor guide to who was buying spot Bitcoin in September.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
Chainlink's CCIP 2.0 hands the second bridge check to the institutions moving tokenized assets
Chainlink's CCIP 2.0 cuts a transfer's default checks from two networks to one and lets institutions add their own verifiers back. Paying for the second check now falls to the bank or issuer, five months after a single-verifier bridge setup cost Kelp DAO $292 million.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
Jane Street's $15bn July, and the $14.6bn curtain it is drawing over the aftermath
One month erased more than a third of the firm's year-to-date trading revenue, according to a single report. The financing response narrows who gets to see the numbers.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives50
- Confidence35
Bitwise's share of Solana ETF inflows slipped on the category's record $80 million day
Bitwise's BSOL drew $55.7 million of US spot Solana ETFs' record $80 million to $87 million day, a smaller share than its 76% to 80% of all inflows. Grayscale and the smaller funds took a bigger slice of the new money than of the old.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
A run-of-the-mill RIA seller now draws seven or eight offers instead of eleven
Wealth-management M&A is holding its volume while the bid narrows to firms that can prove organic growth. The evidence is in offers per seller, down three or four names from a year ago, according to one sell-side adviser.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives68
- Confidence57
Existing holders are selling 36.5 million of the 50 million shares on offer. Oura's own 13.5 million would net about $532.6 million at the $42 midpoint, ahead of pricing on September 29 at up to $14.1 billion.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 22%
- Investor
- Investor 59%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption78
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives76
- Confidence68
Fidelity finds 51% of clients with completed financial plans still anxious about the future
Fidelity's survey found confidence rises with how much detail older clients share with their children. Just 27% have explained their plan's details to their kids, and 35% keep them posted on changes.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives72
- Confidence52
Fidelity and BlackRock supplied about 97% of the $433 million that US spot bitcoin ETFs took in on September 18, and the week they rescued still finished at plus $6.2 million, worth about 77 bitcoin.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption76
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives48
- Confidence70
Bitwise's staking fund took four of every five dollars in Solana's $1.4bn run
Solana's spot ETFs have taken net inflows for twelve straight weeks, an average of at least $117m a week, and the latest week came in at $60.7m. Bitcoin's spot funds took $6.1m on their quietest volume since October 2024.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives45
- Confidence40
HIAI charges 87 basis points to enter a category where eight of 21 funds have folded
Ai Funds' new ETF hands stock selection to a proprietary model for 0.87% a year, against a 0.74% average for active ETFs, and it joins a category where all seven surviving funds have had outflows.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
CLARITY needs seven Democrats even if all four Republican holdouts come back
Cloture on H.R. 3633 failed 49-50 on Sept. 15 with every yes vote Republican. Add the four Republican noes back to the yes column and the count reaches 53, still seven short of the 60 the Senate requires.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Grayscale's 1.5% fee pays it what BlackRock's 0.25% pays on six times the assets
IBIT took in about $1.08bn over 20 days while GBTC lost $254.7m. But 1.5% on $10bn still collects roughly $150m a year, the same as 0.25% on $60bn, so a cut would cost Grayscale more than the outflows do.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
House Republicans weigh trading the mining tax deferral for one Democrat's vote
H.R. 9175 would move the tax on mining and staking rewards from the day they arrive to the day they are sold. Cryptobriefing.com reports the committee may cut that provision to bring a Democrat along before the September 16 markup.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives64
- Confidence44
Two trackers read the same day of bitcoin ETF flows about twenty times apart
SoSoValue counted $13.29m leaving bitcoin funds on September 11 and $216m arriving in ether funds. Another tracker counted $267m out of bitcoin and $46m out of ether on the same date.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence38
Ways and Means takes up a crypto wash-sale extension worth $23.5bn over a decade
The September 16 markup pairs that revenue estimate with H.R. 9175, a bill letting miners and stakers wait until they sell before recognising income on newly created tokens. Bloomberg reported the schedule.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Vanguard buys a custodian that charges ETF issuers nothing for shelf space
Fidelity takes 15% of an ETF's revenue for shelf space and Schwab is bringing platform fees back, while Altruist says it takes nothing from asset managers. Vanguard now owns Altruist, which turns that zero into a pricing weapon.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives71
- Confidence52