Google Quantum AI cut errors in the magic states made on its Willow chip roughly 40-fold, using a technique called cultivation. The states still fail about once in 10,000 attempts, Scientific American reported, against one in a million or better for simulating molecules.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 53%
- Operator
- Operator 20%
- Investor
- Investor 27%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives35
- Confidence74
buildConfirmed5 publishers Google Quantum AI says magic state cultivation cut errors about 40x on its Willow chip, in a result published in Science. The up-to-95% overhead figure is an older estimate, and Google says the protocol still needs a larger-scale demonstration.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 41%
- Operator
- Operator 21%
- Investor
- Investor 38%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence72
StarkWare's challenge drove the estimated compute cost of a quantum-safe Bitcoin spend to $59
Researchers in StarkWare's optimization challenge cut the estimated compute cost of a quantum-safe Bitcoin spend by 82%, to $59. The method covers only coins with hidden public keys, so the 6.04 million BTC with exposed keys stay outside its reach.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
EU supervisors rank foreign dependence ahead of a private credit book at 0.6% of bank assets
The Joint Committee of the EBA, EIOPA and ESMA handed EU governments an autumn risk update that puts reliance on non-EU ICT, clearing, ratings and foreign-currency funding at the top, with AI-enabled attacks and quantum next.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
IBM matches Washington's $1 billion check for the first US quantum wafer foundry
The federal government is funding exactly half of Anderon's upstate New York plant. The outside customers IBM hopes to sell wafers to include three quantum developers that each took up to $100 million from Commerce this month.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives66
- Confidence36
Eigen Labs' ECDSA.Fail leaderboard took the resource score for one step of a quantum key recovery from 10.75 billion to 1.496 billion by July 26, while the defense side works to fixed dates in 2029 and 2030.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives66
- Confidence63
Google and Ethereum set 2029 dates one year ahead of NIST's ECDSA deprecation
LayerZero shipped a lattice-based proof component on Wednesday; Coinbase gathered Bitcoin developers and custodians at Stanford and left without a chosen signature scheme, which is the piece no date can order.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives72
- Confidence44
The quantum race stopped being about money. It now hands boards two dates: 2029 and 2030
Federal dollars are no longer the binding constraint in US quantum. Two dated milestones, one vendor and one state, are what a migration plan can actually be built against.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives80
- Confidence38
Ethereum's quantum plan gets a one-way switch: draft EIP would retire BLS for good
A contributor's draft would make the validator deposit contract variable length and add a mode to end BLS signatures permanently. It is unfinished, unnumbered, and aimed at a 2029 target that may move.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence52