Skip to content

International Atomic Energy Agency

UN agency that verifies and monitors nuclear materials and activities worldwide, including inspections of Iran's nuclear program.

Known aliases

  • IAEA
  • IAEA Board of Governors
  • UN nuclear watchdog

Current stories

leadershipOne report1 publisher

The nuclear analogy AI executives cite rests on material that can be counted

Musk, Amodei, Altman and the CIA's director all reach for nuclear precedent, and a Foreign Affairs essay sets out why the three governance designs built on it assume a traceable inventory and state ownership that frontier AI lacks.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption20
Hype gap+15
Incentives70
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Iran moves rapid-reaction and artillery units to four borders and the Makran coast

Tehran's unified command is treating renewed US action as a settled decision and has threatened the region's American bases, while the chairman of parliament's security committee says the Hormuz agreement is being held up.

Publishers:en.sedaily.com

Reality

Evidence33
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives80
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Prediction markets discount US-Iran talks on a two-week claim, with inspector access restricted

Netanyahu put Iran two weeks from a nuclear weapon after the IAEA sent Tehran's file to the Security Council and said restricted access leaves it unable to verify the material. The talks contract moved on the words.

Reality

Evidence16
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+62
Incentives78
Confidence20
investOne report1 publisher

IAEA's first Iran referral in two decades coincides with satellite imagery of construction at Pickaxe Mountain

The Board of Governors sent Iran's file to the Security Council on the same day Rafael Grossi confirmed construction at Pickaxe Mountain, a site the agency has been asking to inspect since mid-2025.

Reality

Evidence30
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives65
Confidence35
scienceOne report1 publisher

Geologic modelling puts 2,000 to 5,000 tonnes of uranium in DRC's cobalt exports since 2000

A study of Copperbelt geology and plant throughput estimates that 25 years of cobalt hydroxide shipments carried natural uranium, less than a tenth of it declared to the IAEA. The DRC is now testing outgoing loads.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption28
Hype gap+30
Incentives68
Confidence38
scienceOne report1 publisher

Daily rain sampling in Manaus links the 2023-24 Amazon drought to shifted moisture sources

A UNESP-led team read 207 daily rain samples collected in Manaus between March 2023 and February 2025 and found two Atlantic systems taking turns at setting the isotope ratio. The early-warning use is still untested.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption20
Hype gap+30
Incentives55
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

The last Iran referral took at least nine years to produce a nuclear deal

The IAEA confirmed fresh construction at Pickaxe Mountain on the same day its board sent Iran to the Security Council for the first time in twenty years, and it has never had an inspector inside the place.

Reality

Evidence36
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+34
Incentives62
Confidence41
scienceOne report1 publisher

Antineutrino monitoring reaches into the weeks a reactor sits shut down

During a rare 24.4-day outage with both Chooz B cores off, Double Chooz pulled more than 100 residual antineutrino events out of the plant's burnt fuel, giving a safeguards idea from the 1970s its first measured spectrum.

Publishers:physicsworld.com

Reality

Evidence71
Adoption10
Hype gap+18
Incentives55
Confidence57
productOne report1 publisher

newcleo dates its floating 200 MWe reactor barge to 2036

The n-Floating consortium has just under a million euros and 18 months to test whether a barge of lead-cooled reactors is safe and sellable, which puts anyone banking on floating nuclear in the back half of the 2030s.

Reality

Evidence27
Adoption8
Hype gap+44
Incentives71
Confidence44
investOne report1 publisher

Seoul's freeze-first turn, and the 30 warheads it would leave on the table

South Korea's unification ministry now lists a nuclear freeze alongside phased denuclearization, and US Pacific Command declined to condemn the North's latest ballistic launches.

Publishers:en.sedaily.com

Reality

Evidence44
Adoption21
Hype gap+14
Incentives56
Confidence41