Bond ETF inflows match the top S&P 500 funds with the 10-year yield above 5%
Five bond ETFs took in $24.89 billion in the month to Oct. 8, level with the $24.88 billion that went into two S&P 500 funds, according to Koscom data. Most of the bond money went to aggregate and municipal funds that lost between 2% and 3.3%, so investors are buying duration alongside stocks priced at 19 times forward earnings.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Treasury 10-year yields hit a 24-year high of 5.349% on Oct. 5, the day a U.S. services survey showed the highest prices reading since July 2022. French and Spanish strain looks secondary, since Spanish yields fell and French ones held that session.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 22%
- Investor
- Investor 70%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
ISM's services prices index rose to 74.0 in September, its highest reading since July 2022, even as the sector's growth cooled. Cost increases that widespread, after September's quarter-point Fed hike, make an early cut harder to justify.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
Traders cut the odds of a Fed hike this month to 23% from 71% in a week, and the 10-year Treasury yield still climbed to its highest since 2002. Stocks rallied on the softer Fed outlook, so AI earnings now have to justify equity prices against a risk-free rate above 5.3%.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives30
- Confidence64
Bitcoin sat at $85,276 on Sunday, below the $86,000 area it hit before payrolls, even as Glassnode put October Fed hike odds at 22% from 66%. This week's fund-flow data will show whether ETF buyers are taking over from the short covering that lifted it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence52
Buyers pulled the 10-year Treasury yield from a 24-year high of 5.34% to a 5.233% close on Thursday, after its biggest quarterly rise since 1994. Part of that demand was a flight to safety, and part was a bet that the Fed holds off on further hikes.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 0%
- Operator
- Operator 8%
- Investor
- Investor 92%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Firms call supply chain crisis worse than COVID; separate survey finds only 45% feel ready for disruption
ISM respondents and named executives say cost and uncertainty now run above 2020 levels, with diesel at double its March price and global shipping capacity down 15% on Flexport's estimate, while the manufacturing index keeps expanding.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence40