US employers added 29,000 jobs in September while the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut 60,000 from its July and August counts. With layoffs still falling, the data describe a hiring freeze that argues for slowing headcount plans and holding cuts in reserve.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence75
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest in 12 years. Jobs data out the same day held steady. The drop traces to fuel and prices, and those are what a spending forecast built on labour figures alone misses.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
US quits settle at 3.07 million in August after the 2021-22 job-hopping wave
US workers quit 3.07 million jobs in August, 23,000 fewer than in July, Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data show. Fewer resignations mean fewer seats to refill, but the case for easing pay pressure still rests on the 2021-22 experience.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Warsh's low-turnover line survives a July in which hires fell 278,000
Quits, layoffs and hires all fell in the same month. Only one of those three actually tells you whether a quiet labor market means workers staying put by choice or employers pulling back. July's answer came from layoffs.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
Kramer stakes a coin-flip September hike on the thin chart above current Treasury yields
July headline PCE at 3.7 per cent puts a September Fed hike near even money, and the load-bearing piece of the argument is a chart claim about how little sits above today's 2-year and 10-year yields.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+44
- Incentives63
- Confidence33
Conference Board's chief economist is betting on Warsh's vote, not the inflation prints
Dana Peterson expects no hike next month while markets price one, and her reasoning rests on a consumer decline now reaching independents and Republicans rather than on inflation reports that will not exist by the time the committee sits.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
JOLTS now rests on about a third of its sample. Widen the error bars.
Response rates for the vacancy series that feeds Fed expectations have fallen from the high 60s to roughly 30% in a decade. The BLS has started publishing the evidence.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives42
- Confidence44