Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said AI-linked price increases are spreading beyond data centers while August inflation was 3.4%. September's figures, due this week, test his fear against Governor Lisa Cook's view that the boom is a sector-specific shift.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 15%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 57%
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Trump named a three-member White House panel to decide whether there is cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with a closed hearing on Nov. 5. Quartz reported that Cook's last written reply is due Nov. 10, so the route to opening a Fed board seat now runs on a calendar.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 37%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives75
- Confidence78
Fed Governor Lisa Cook says about $2 trillion in announced AI investment is pushing up input costs such as electricity before it delivers productivity gains. Her doubt that the Fed can still look through supply shocks links data-center spending to rates in 2027.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Fed stress-test reforms hand banks a January comment window on the scenarios that set their capital
Federal Reserve stress-test reforms finalized Wednesday put large-bank scenarios out for public comment each January and average results over two years. Banks now get a say in the inputs to their capital requirements, so the question for shareholders is whether banks release the excess capital they have held against random results.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Hassett's case against another Fed hike rests on a three-month inflation window
Kevin Hassett, the White House's top economist, says three-month core inflation near 2% leaves the Fed little room to raise rates. Wednesday's August PCE release will test his window on the inflation gauge the Fed itself prefers.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives80
- Confidence50
July CPI at 0.1% and flat PPI took the near-term rate scare off the table. What is left holding up records above 7,800 is a bet on how long GPUs stay useful.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 24%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Core services and a sudden run-up in computer prices are holding the Fed's preferred gauge 1.35 points above target. Futures put the September choice at hold or hike.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 32%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence74
The FDIC, Federal Reserve, OCC and NCUA want examiners looking harder at transparency, contract structure and technology inside core servicing deals. The guidance carrying that expectation is non-binding, with 60 days for comment.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
A call to Bloomberg's editor cost its TV channel a year of Bessent appearances
Semafor reports that Scott Bessent warned Bloomberg's editor-in-chief of different treatment from Treasury if a story about his two principal residences ran. It ran, and he has stayed off Bloomberg Television since.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence52
Conference Board's chief economist is betting on Warsh's vote, not the inflation prints
Dana Peterson expects no hike next month while markets price one, and her reasoning rests on a consumer decline now reaching independents and Republicans rather than on inflation reports that will not exist by the time the committee sits.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
Hoenig reads the Fed's silence on Treasury's bond buybacks as deliberate distancing
Treasury is doubling its purchases of long-term debt while the Fed plans to shrink its own book, and the former Kansas City Fed president told Semafor that nobody at Jackson Hole mentioned that for a reason.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
"An inadvertent error is not fraud": Cook turns removal attempt two into a test of "for cause"
Cook's response makes intent the whole question. Whether "for cause" carries fraud's intent requirement decides how reachable a Fed governor's vote is, and rates desks hold that answer.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives74
- Confidence55
Trump's 'for cause' case against Lisa Cook will set the price of Fed independence
The White House has started a removal process the Supreme Court declined to define, with Governor Lisa Cook due to respond by Aug. 26. The standard set will outlast this board.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives74
- Confidence55