CoreWeave's default swaps imply a nearly 63% chance of default within five years, up from 30%
CoreWeave's 2031 bonds yield above 16% and its default swaps trade near 1,000 basis points, Channel NewsAsia reported. At that yield a $10 billion raise would cost $1.6 billion a year in interest, three-quarters of the $2.13 billion loss analysts expect this year.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 23%
- Investor
- Investor 65%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence72
CoreWeave's bonds yield 15% when its model needs about 6%, Newcomer reports
CoreWeave's bonds yielded 15% on Thursday, nine points above the roughly 6% Newcomer says its model needs. Firmus pulled its $30 billion IPO after investors balked. Newcomer calls the $35 billion Nscale filing shaky.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
CoreWeave shares fell 14% to 16% on October 14 as the yield on its 2032 bonds neared 15%. An investor's chart has the bonds leading by a day, yet rate-hike bets after hot consumer price data hit the whole group together.
Perspective Coverage
13 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 29%
- Investor
- Investor 66%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives50
- Confidence72
Although CoreWeave's backlog and new commitments top 2.5 times its debt, its 2031 junk bonds yield about 16%
CoreWeave, which has never turned a profit and carries about $50 billion of debt per LSEG, has seen its shares and bonds tumble. An explainer links the slide to a wider tech selloff, though IG's Axel Rudolph puts the doubt in funding.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
CoreWeave lost 16% on the hot CPI print while the big hyperscalers gave up about 2%
CoreWeave's shares fell 16% on Wednesday's hot US CPI report, part of an $80 billion one-day loss across four AI stocks. A June bond it issued at a 9.625% yield recently yielded 15%.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
CoreWeave's 2032 notes yield near 15% as the stock falls to $65.78
CoreWeave shares fell about 15% to $65.78 on October 14 as yields on its $1.25 billion of 2032 unsecured notes climbed toward 15%. Deutsche Bank's Buy-rated $150 target, set August 7, is about 2.3 times that close.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
A viral chart of CoreWeave bond yields sends Oracle, Dell and neocloud shares down
CoreWeave shares fell more than 15.5% after a chart showed its $1.25 billion bond batch briefly yielding over 15%. Oracle, Dell and AMD fell with it.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
CoreWeave is leasing 240MW from AdaniConneX in Navi Mumbai for its first India data centres, with the first phase due in mid-2028. Teams that must keep AI work in India get a 2028 supplier to plan around, though reports differ on how far the site can grow.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 20%
- Operator
- Operator 37%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence65
July CPI at 0.1% and flat PPI took the near-term rate scare off the table. What is left holding up records above 7,800 is a bet on how long GPUs stay useful.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 24%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence58