Person
Senior Iranian cleric and son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, often cited as a leading contender to succeed his father.
Iran's rial fell past 2.5 million to the dollar in Tehran trading after the country loaded no oil at its terminals in September, a first since 1979. The currency has lost 40% of its value this year while money for oil shipped before the blockade is still coming in.
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Foreign Affairs essay argues Iran's leaders, nervous in private despite claiming victory in the war begun February 28, will escalate against energy markets. Its view that no settlement would last makes the Hormuz energy shock a planning problem measured in years.
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Iran says it is fully closing the Strait of Hormuz just as government bond rates climb worldwide. An energy shock into a rising-rate market leaves the usual offset unavailable.
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Iran pushed its trade onto land routes after the blockade closed its southern ports. Those corridors are clearing cargo at four times the sea freight cost and weeks of delay, and total non-oil trade is falling.
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Mohsen Rezaei took over Iran's Supreme National Security Council in the August decrees and says continued economic war ends oil exports from the Persian Gulf. The collateral is mostly other producers' cargo, and the supreme leader who would sign any deal has not been seen in 182 days.
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Tehran's new security chief says any country backing Washington's Monday package is committing an act of war. The strait authority now naming ships for fines is itself under U.S. sanctions.
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Iranian officials are now saying on the record that the economy cannot take another round. What that concession changes for energy and EM books is not what the headlines imply.
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Majidreza Hariri put a number on evading the U.S. naval blockade: about $18 billion a year in extra freight. The oil risk premium now rests on a sanctions regime, not a shooting war.
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Treasury promises restrictions "never seen" and the Pentagon says the blockade can run indefinitely, while a record carrier deployment and 45 lost Reapers show what holding the line costs.
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