Existing-home sales edge up to a 3.99 million pace as the 30-year mortgage rate reaches 7.4%
US existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a 3.99 million annual pace, the National Association of Realtors said, but fell 2.2% from a year earlier. Many of those deals were signed at 30-year rates of 6.43% to 6.69%, below last week's 7.4%.
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence74
Freddie Mac's benchmark 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.28% this week, a sixth straight weekly increase and the highest since November 2023. Since February it has risen as far as the 10-year Treasury yield, so the cost of a move this fall depends on the bond market's inflation outlook.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence78
Older millennials spend about twice what Gen Z does on hobbies, Bank of America Institute finds
Older millennials spend just over twice what Gen Z does per customer on hobbies, according to a Bank of America Institute analysis. If the bank's economist is right that life stage drives the gap, younger millennials will grow into the same spending.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
US existing-home sales fell 2 per cent in August to a 3.98 million annual pace while listings rose to 1.62 million homes, the most since November 2019, and the ratio of the two is about 4.9 months of supply.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 37%
- Investor
- Investor 53%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives40
- Confidence72
Compass toured its own offices to get 15,000 of its 83,000 agents onto its AI assistant
A demo day watched live by more than 10,000 agents, visits from senior leaders to local offices and retrained regional staff produced about 97,000 conversations from roughly one agent in five in the weeks after July's launch.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives74
- Confidence46
Purchase applications are falling three and a half times as fast as signed home contracts
The daily 30-year fixed reached 7.24% last week. Applications feeding Q4 closings are down far more than signed contracts, and the buyers still transacting are increasingly cash buyers.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives66
- Confidence58
The 600-699 credit band has lost 13.3 points of mortgage originations since 2005
A Pew study puts that band at 22.3% of originations in 2024, while scores of 700 and above gained 24.9 points over the same period. Existing home sales are now running at a 3.98 million annual pace.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives58
- Confidence62
A year of waiting added 41 basis points to the 30-year mortgage
The 30-year mortgage sits 41 basis points above where it was last September, existing home sales have fallen three months running, and August's monthly inflation stepped back up to 0.4%. Housing-exposed plans need a new base case.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
OpenAI and Anthropic staff hold $198bn of paper against a $600bn San Francisco housing stock
San Francisco's July median rose 6% on an 18.4% drop in listings, which is a supply squeeze more than a wealth shock, and the $198bn that would make it a wealth shock depends on two IPOs that have not happened.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives68
- Confidence36
Pending home sales fell 2.3% in July to the second-lowest reading on record, and the West hit an outright record low. A fourth year at the bottom is not a cycle you wait out.
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption76
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives40
- Confidence74