Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says state policing would drive US prediction markets offshore, though two of three appeals courts have sided with states. Sports slid from 95% of Kalshi's revenue to about two-thirds, a share change that cannot show how much volume left.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives80
- Confidence65
States and tribal nations press the Supreme Court to rule on sports prediction contracts
Thirty-nine states, D.C., 145 tribal nations, the NFL and Gary Gensler urged the Supreme Court to decide whether sports prediction contracts are swaps. Two of the three appeals courts to rule have called those contracts state-regulated gambling, so platforms on federal licenses still face two possible regulators.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
The BMJ study's range runs from 24.5% to 97.7% because 1,374 of those brains were never examined. That width reflects who donates, not how common the disease is.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
A high school football season delivers 600 to 1,000 subconcussive blows of unknown consequence
Researchers can say how many head impacts a young football player takes in a season. Nobody has published the cumulative dose at which that exposure becomes dangerous. Parents and schools are deciding without it.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence48
The new BMJ cohort counts confirmed cases against every NFL decedent, which makes 25% arithmetic and everything above it argument. That distinction is what liability models will run on.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence71