Sea-ice algae from 6,000 years ago lower Arctic winter ice projections by 1 million square kilometers
Researchers at Cambridge and CIMAT used 6,000-year-old algae records to project Arctic winter sea ice about 1 million km2 below earlier estimates. They say the weighting narrows the uncertainty range by as much as 85%.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Papua New Guinea eclogite ran hotter at 45 km depth than subduction models predict
Geoscientists report a Papua New Guinea rock that reached about 700 degrees C at 45 km depth and gained only about 100 degrees more by 90 km. A sample from one island cannot yet say whether the models or this zone is unusual.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Apatite trapped in 3.4-billion-year-old zircon shows the mantle responding to surface oxygen
Portsmouth-led researchers found the mantle recorded surface oxygen 3.4 to 3 billion years ago, up to 1.1 billion years before the Great Oxidation Event. Sulfur chemistry in apatite sealed inside zircon indicates oxidized surface material was already being carried down by some form of subduction, according to the Nature Geoscience study.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Researchers using Mars Express report that the 1,800 km Arsia Mons cloud appears in simulations only when water vapour freezes without dust seeds. If that holds, the air there reaches humidities long treated as theoretical, a conclusion that rests on a model's fit to one cloud.
Perspective Coverage
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- Builder 65%
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- Operator 30%
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- Investor 5%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives45
- Confidence60
Papua New Guinea rock cooled by about 100 degrees C as it sank past 90 km
Researchers found that a Papua New Guinea rock reached about 800 degrees C at 45 km deep, then cooled by about 100 degrees beyond 90 km. The evidence is a single rock, and a co-author offers two explanations that imply different changes to subduction heat models.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
High CO2 and scarce phosphate leave diatoms holding about 26% less phosphorus per unit carbon
Chinese researchers grew a diatom for 880 days and found high CO2 cut its phosphorus per unit carbon by about 26% when phosphate was scarce. The cells still grew faster, so in this species extra CO2 changed what the plankton are made of as well as how fast they multiply.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence52
Strict Paris-aligned cuts are at least 89% likely to mean less Antarctic ice loss by 2100
Researchers writing in Nature Geoscience give at least 89% odds that the strictest Paris path costs Antarctica less ice by 2100 than very high emissions. For coastal planners, that puts part of Antarctica's future contribution to sea level within reach of emissions policy.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Hundreds of thousands of screened simulations point to net Antarctic ice loss even at 1.5C
Researchers screening hundreds of thousands of simulated futures in Nature Geoscience find Antarctica loses ice on net this century, even at 1.5C of warming. In the runs that survive, extra snowfall does not outweigh the loss, so Antarctica adds to sea-level rise this century.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence45
Warming cuts the South Asian monsoon's influence on Mediterranean summer rain in climate models
Chinese Academy of Sciences researchers project warming will cut the South Asian monsoon's share of Mediterranean summer rain variance from 14.2% to 5.1%. The high-emissions projection is about what causes rain to swing from one summer to the next, and it does not say whether the region's summers will get wetter.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Iron minerals carrying up to 15% water survive core-mantle boundary conditions in the lab
Researchers publishing in Nature Geoscience found that two iron oxyhydroxides holding up to 15% water by weight stay stable at core-mantle boundary conditions. That makes the deepest mantle a plausible store of Earth's original water, pending evidence that the minerals exist there.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Buried volcano beneath the Moon's Dewar swirl points to an ancient field of at least 11.4 microteslas
Anna Mittelholz of ETH Zurich and colleagues say a 60-km volcanic body under the Moon's Dewar swirl cooled in a field of at least 11.4 microteslas. They credit a core dynamo like Earth's, since the site's location makes an impact origin unlikely.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Superionic iron hydride turns up in a wired diamond anvil, and then barely moves
Science Tokyo's group put a voltage across iron hydride at up to 110 gigapascals and watched hydrogen migrate. By their own numbers it would travel 0.1 micrometres in 10,000 years.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives66
- Confidence55
A weaker AMOC does not just move heat around. It adds to the total
New work in Nature Geoscience finds past Atlantic slowdowns raised the heat stored by the global ocean, an effect the authors size at about 25 ppm of carbon dioxide.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives58
- Confidence44
The deep Atlantic breathes through one small sea, and nobody was metering it
A Nature Geoscience paper puts the Labrador Sea's oxygen export at more than 27 teramoles a year, enough to cover respiration across the deep North Atlantic. AMOC strength alone will not track it.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence58