The UK's independent public body that produces official economic and fiscal forecasts and assesses the government's performance against its fiscal rules.
British Chambers of Commerce says more than half the bosses it surveyed think the post-Brexit deal is not helping. Its director general told the Guardian that Burnham should put repair first as he reconsiders Labour's EU red lines.
Reality
The IFS says inflation could force Chancellor John Healey to add up to £35bn to departmental budgets by decade-end, a bigger problem than borrowing costs. Headroom for 2029-30 slips only to about £20bn from £24bn, so the harder Budget call is on departmental spending.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Chancellor John Healey may need an extra £25bn in 2029-30 to hold departmental budgets against war-driven inflation, by the IFS's estimate. He is not obliged to set spending totals in his 28 October Budget, so the choice between cuts and tax rises could wait until next year.
Reality
Prime Minister Andy Burnham is loosening the state pension triple lock as 10-year gilt yields sit above 5%, with savings of 15 billion pounds a year by 2040. None of that money reaches borrowing before the next election, so gilt holders are being handed a promise about spending in the 2040s.
Reality
Capital Economics says Britain's housebuilding miss could cut £1.6bn from John Healey's fiscal headroom by erasing the OBR's planning-reform boost. Builders blame mortgage rates, and a loan scheme for buyers helps his Budget only if the OBR scores it as adding homes.
Reality