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Head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy and a frequently quoted commentator on US retail gasoline and diesel prices.
US diesel futures rose 5% by midday Tuesday to their highest level in weeks, NBC News reported. In our view, fuel and freight budgets for this quarter should assume higher costs, because the administration's relief measures have not held prices down so far.
Reality
Hurricane Isaias shut in almost two-thirds of U.S. Gulf oil output by Thursday night, Heatmap reported, up from about a quarter that morning in NBC's count. For fuel buyers the storm's refinery risk runs for days, inside a refining shortage GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan puts at three to six months.
Reality
Trump signed an order Monday letting anyone buy tax-exempt red-dye diesel and said it would save truckers more than $100 per fill-up. How much fleets actually save depends on four federal departments expanding access and on states choosing to suspend their own diesel taxes.
Perspective Coverage
7 publishersReality
Diesel at $6.53 a gallon is a political problem for Trump. The remedy under discussion would hold a record 1.6 million barrels a day at home, in a market where the world price still sets the US price.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishersReality
Senate candidates in Alaska and Michigan are pitching diesel export curbs and gas tax holidays to an electorate where 47% rank cost of living first. The oil and electricity costs behind those pledges look set to outlast November, whoever wins.
Reality
Crude had a reserve to tap and refined product does not, which is why taking roughly 3% of global diesel supply out of the market has pushed the US pump average to an all-time high with the squeeze still building.
Reality
US diesel averaged $6.52 a gallon on Sept. 23, an all-time high, and analysts told Fortune that keeping the fuel home would lower prices only near the Gulf Coast before refiners trim runs on every fuel they make.
Reality
GasBuddy has California's diesel average at $7.91 a gallon and the national average past $6 for the first time. The extra $700m a day Americans are paying for fuel works out near $255bn over a year.
Reality