JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report third-quarter results Tuesday, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America following Wednesday. Oppenheimer has cut its investment banking revenue estimate by 9.5%, and a bank ETF is down 7.7% in a month, according to The Daily Upside.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 4%
- Operator
- Operator 22%
- Investor
- Investor 74%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives40
- Confidence62
European stocks and the euro slide back toward last week's lows with Brent at $101.83
Europe's STOXX 600 fell 1.02% and the euro 0.62% on Wednesday as Brent rose to $101.83 and France's bond spread widened. Both still sit above last week's lows, the levels a Europe-exposed portfolio has to watch as the fourth quarter starts.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Escorted Hormuz oil flows give Iran more reason to escalate before the midterms, analysts say
Analysts expect Iran to drag the war past the Nov. 3 midterms, even as U.S.-escorted Middle East oil exports climb to almost 13 million barrels a day. Their case is that the escorted barrels cost Tehran leverage and leave escalation as one of its two remaining options.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
InvestCloud commits $50 million to cut the paperwork between advisers and private markets
InvestCloud is putting $50 million into tools that move advisers' clients into private markets, where Cerulli sees $2 trillion of new money in five years. The budget is 0.0025% of that flow, and the claim that software is the real barrier comes from a firm that sells it.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
LPL takes the law firm Ameriprise recommended to three recruits into federal court
Three advisors took transition advice in 2023 from a law firm Ameriprise recommended to them, then faced arbitration claims from that same firm after they moved to LPL. LPL wants the 2023 file.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives72
- Confidence52
Rocket Lab to pay about 16 times EBITDA in $8 billion deal for Iridium
The offer is $54 a share, half of it cash, so about $4bn falls due at a closing the companies expect in mid-2027. Neutron's first-flight hardware is due at the pad in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives58
- Confidence40
Schwab starts phoning Altruist's advisors a week into Vanguard's deal
The pitch that landed in one advisor's voicemail offered help growing his practice rather than a cheaper custody bill, and Schwab's own referral minimum has moved from $500,000 to $5 million in a year.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives76
- Confidence54
Nine percent of Grindr's users are carrying a $540 million revenue guide
Grindr's revenue is on pace to roughly triple since 2022 with little user growth, which puts the next leg on telehealth, travel and a premium tier priced near eleven times what an average paying subscriber spends.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives79
- Confidence54
Record Recruiting Checks Meet An Eight-Year Payback And An Unpriced AI Question
Ameriprise calls rival offers "crazy" as its advisor loan book climbs 25% to $1.67 billion. The deals assume recruits keep growing revenue that analysts think AI may automate.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives72
- Confidence52
A $121 million bank in Palmer is the opening bid in a Texas roll-up
Jeff Kesler's Future Financial is buying Commercial State Bank and betting that out-of-state acquirers have pushed small Texas lenders toward the exit.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives72
- Confidence40