Bowman says Basel and the FSB lifted language from flawed US reports on Silicon Valley Bank
Michelle Bowman, the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, told a Bangkok audience that other countries should copy her three supervisory changes. She also chairs an FSB committee, so the criticism of Basel and the FSB comes from a member with a seat.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap
- Not scored
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Fortune column pins the worst Treasury month in four years on Warsh's hawkish Fed
Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed sent the 10-year Treasury yield up more than half a point to about 5.3% in September, a Fortune column argues. Its own account of traders dumping long bonds describes the term premium it dismisses, with the Fed as the cause.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
Erebor's $7 billion deposit surge tests its capital before its cash
Erebor, the Palmer Luckey-backed national bank, has taken in more than $7 billion of deposits, and its June filing showed $77.8 million of loans. Its cash would cover a Silvergate-sized run, so the tighter limit on its growth is the 12% leverage floor the OCC set.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
Circle told the European Commission that only 3 of the world's top 25 stablecoins are authorized under MiCA, in its response to the law's review. Circle issues two of the three, and it ties the gap to bank-deposit and concentration rules it wants loosened.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 42%
- Investor
- Investor 40%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives80
- Confidence65
FCA turns to international regulators as Polymarket takes bets on HSBC and Lloyds failing
Polymarket has taken $77,507 in positions on whether the world's biggest banks, HSBC and Lloyds among them, fail by year-end. For British lenders the exposure is how fast that price could travel on social media during a period of stress.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
The Starling Trust Sciences review found Fed supervisors felt safer taking no action, and Bowman's response is a standing report on where examiners were uncertain, visible to leadership in real time. She has not published the review.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Starling's SVB review says private messages, mobile banking accelerated-but didn't cause-2023 run
The first report from the Fed's outside review of its own Silicon Valley Bank supervision backs most of what three earlier audits found, but clears the social media posts blamed in 2023 of creating the condition depositors ran from.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption12
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives60
- Confidence52
General Catalyst wants founders to stop funding sales and marketing with equity
The firm's case rests on one comparison, that Microsoft's founders held almost four-fifths of their company at IPO while most founders now hold under a fifth.
Publishers:generalcatalyst.com
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives92
- Confidence60
Horizon3's twenty-year apprenticeship bought a hiring list and a personal credit line
A $250 million round pushed the AI pentesting company above $2 billion. The clearest return on Snehal Antani's two decades inside IBM, GE Capital, Splunk and JSOC is who he could hire and what he could borrow.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives72
- Confidence50
First Citizens retires the SVB brand that banked nearly half the US venture-backed startup base
The October rollout renames Innovation Banking, Fund Banking and SVB Go, promises that routing numbers and passwords are untouched, and says nothing at all about the advance rates or covenants operators hoped to read in it.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption31
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives66
- Confidence54
Michaud's deposit thesis returns the funding to banks, not necessarily the credit risk
KBW chief Tom Michaud says higher rates and Washington's turn will pull deposit stability back to banks. His own warning about contagious digital runs cuts the other way.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives74
- Confidence36
Two ways to win at $50 billion, and neither label explains the margins
Capital Performance Group split the top-performing large banks into spread lenders and fee-based wealth managers. The wealth firm posted the wider net interest margin.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives57
- Confidence62
When capital shrinks, investors buy comparables. Everyone else pitches into a void.
U.S. VC fundraising fell almost 20% year over year to its lowest level since 2019, per SVB. Outside the AI trade, the market slide is now doing the underwriting work.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives76
- Confidence45
Second Circuit puts Signature's executives and KPMG back on the hook
The appeals court held that FIRREA's succession clause does not give the FDIC a monopoly on claims arising from a failed bank, reviving a class action led by Sweden's AP7.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence52
The Home Loan banks just became a political variable, not a funding constant
House Democrats spent an oversight hearing questioning whether the Federal Home Loan Bank System should exist. Treasurers who model advance capacity as fixed now have a coefficient to add.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives74
- Confidence38