FAA says it will prepare a programmatic environmental impact statement on SpaceX's request to fly Starship 456 times a year from Starbase, up from 25. The review is at an early stage, and public scoping meetings run Nov. 17 to 19.
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption4
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence80
SpaceX put Starship into orbit on its first orbital flight even after one of the upper stage's six Raptor engines shut down early. It sets up the orbital refuelling tests NASA's 2028 moon landing depends on, though those tests and an upper-stage catch are still ahead.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives50
- Confidence70
SpaceX's Starship reached orbit for the first time on September 28 and deployed 26 working Starlink V3 satellites, each built to add 1 Tbps of capacity. Buyers can count on that capacity this quarter, while teams hoping to book Starship for their own payloads have one partial orbital flight to judge it by.
Perspective Coverage
12 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 31%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence72
Flight 14 opens its window on 22 September carrying real payload for the first time, though neither stage will attempt a landing and Starship is flying at roughly four a year against the 25 test flights SpaceX officials once hoped for.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives68
- Confidence64
White House policy asks US launch ranges to quintuple their annual cadence by 2030
The August 20 National Space Transportation Policy sets a 2030 floor of more than 1,000 launches and reentries a year against 181 launches in 2025, and the people who track range capacity put the shortage in payload buildings and site plumbing.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives62
- Confidence60