UK Royal Navy-run body that monitors shipping security and relays threat warnings to merchant vessels in the Gulf, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean.
BBC Verify's analysis of UKMTO data shows 12 ships reported attacks near Hormuz in the week of 5-11 October, the most since the war began. Oil flows through the strait have already slipped from September's recovery, so operators with fuel or freight exposure are planning on a short record.
Reality
Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary called Washington's reply to its seven Hormuz conditions "insufficient" on Sunday. A tanker was struck in the strait the same day, two days after Trump said energy prices "will come tumbling."
Reality
The euro was on course for a fifth straight weekly drop on Friday, after worry over France's record debt sent it to a 17-month low of $1.1161 on Monday. The dollar index has also risen four weeks running, so the Fed's rate path now looks like a bigger driver than French budget politics.
Reality
Kpler says about 40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as exports regain prewar levels. Iran's own exports are blockaded to almost nothing, and it can still strike the onshore oil assets that now carry more of the flow.
Perspective Coverage
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Washington said it would trade strikes for sanctions. Days later it went back to shooting. For anyone pricing a Gulf voyage, mine risk in the strait was paused last week, not eliminated, and the freight and insurance numbers will keep saying so.
Perspective Coverage
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Gulf producers are paying $30 million to $40 million a voyage to shuttle crude out of Hormuz, about $15 to $20 a barrel before insurance. They are taking it out of their own margins, and how long that lasts depends on repairs to a damaged Saudi pipeline.
Reality
The US is now threatening the state brokering a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran keeps the passage shut pending sanctions relief. Reopening is not a base case.
Perspective Coverage
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UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a vessel alight after a projectile strike in the Strait of Hormuz. The tradeable version of that news is a contract on no ships transiting the strait by the end of September.
Reality
A projectile hit a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on September 12-13, according to a UKMTO advisory, and on the worst days since the conflict began the corridor has carried two million barrels instead of twenty. Brent is above $100.
Reality
Pezeshkian, speaking days after the weekend's exchange of fire, says Iran will reciprocate immediately if Washington returns to the June memorandum. Restoring it means restarting a 60-day clock that has already run out.
Reality
Traders put 7 to 8 million barrels a day back through the Strait while US reserve draws fell about 40 percent, which leaves heavy Canadian feedstock, not Gulf crude volume, as the number that sets American diesel costs.
Reality
A single report puts five ships hit by Iranian projectiles in seven days. The repricing is happening on insurance and routing desks, and not yet in Brent.
Reality
Four dated IRGC episodes since April, a collapsed US-Iran safe-passage memorandum, and fresh fire toward the strait argue for a standing premium rather than a series of one-off scares.
Reality
A draft Iranian law would charge 7% of cargo value to transit the strait and fine refusers 20%. That makes it an insurance and charter-contract problem before it is a military one.
Reality