US government bond maturing in ten years; its yield is the benchmark long-term interest rate in US markets.
Second-quarter private real estate appraisals now yield about 90 basis points less than a 10-year Treasury near 5.3%, on figures from Nareit's Ed Pierzak. Third-quarter marks due within weeks will show whether funds reprice a gap with public REITs that has been open since late 2021.
Reality
US 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.34% on 1 October, their highest in 24 years, while oil traded back above $100 a barrel. Rates and oil both reversed within days, so teams planning Q4 headcount, infrastructure or fundraising should budget both as ranges.
Reality
Traders betting on lasting inflation pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.145% on Thursday, its highest since the 2007 financial crisis. Oil back above $105 keeps that bet alive, and AXA's chief economist names two more pressures, tech-sector borrowing and US debt, that would survive a truce.
Reality
The Fed lifted its target range to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16 in a unanimous vote. Two days earlier the 10-year Treasury had crossed 5%, a level set by forces the committee's instrument does not reach.
Reality
Two Fed cuts have been answered with a higher long end, which makes the real question whether 5% on the 10-year is a level inflation is dragging it toward or simply the price at which the market clears the new supply.
Reality