Hurricane Simon passed about 50 km off Mexico's Pacific coast on Oct. 11 as a Category 4 storm with winds near 210 km/h, NASA reported. The Sierra Madre appeared to shrink its wind field, while news reports described flooding in Manzanillo.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Nighttime-lights imagery shows substantial dimming west of Isaias's eye after Destin landfall
NASA's Black Marble HD imagery shows nighttime lights falling west of Isaias's eye after the storm came ashore near Destin with 105 mph winds. Lights are a proxy for electric service, so the images suggest where power was disrupted.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives40
- Confidence60
Indonesia's peat fires reached a tenth of 2015's emissions total in their first month
NASA Earth Observatory puts the 2026 Indonesian fire season at roughly a tenth of 2015's 1.75 billion tons of greenhouse gas equivalents after about a month, with the underground smoldering fires the hardest for satellites to count.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives45
- Confidence66
Indonesia's peat fires logged a tenth of 2015's emissions in their first month
Peat gives off roughly three times the fine particulate matter of other tropical forest fires, so most of this season's health cost is decided by how much soil is already dry and when the rains return.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives42
- Confidence63
Kalimantan's fires: El Nino is the multiplier, the drained peat is the base rate
NASA FIRMS counts show a sharp August spike across five provinces. A published study puts El Nino's megafire effect at roughly 2.7x, and severe fires still happen without it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
A record-low snowpack, then a drought emergency: Tacoma Power runs its dams on satellite forecasts
NASA says the utility feeds VIIRS snow-cover and vegetation products into machine-learning river forecasts that shape releases at Mayfield and Mossyrock. The 2026 water year tested both directions.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption63
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives72
- Confidence56