Topic
How AI adoption shows up in realized employment data across occupations, including which roles grow and which contract.
OpenAI's Morgan Dwyer told a New York City Council hearing the company backs the Warner-Budd workforce bill and will publish its own job-impact analysis. The bill would gather voluntary usage data by task, enough to map AI adoption but not to settle what it does to jobs.
Reality
Fed Governor Michael Barr said more rate hikes are likely needed, citing inflation above 2% for five-plus years and a surge in data center investment. He also urged planning now for AI job losses, casting the technology as a price pressure today and a labor risk later.
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Postings for junior tech roles in the city fell 49% between 2022 and 2025 while overall tech employment stayed flat, and the Center for an Urban Future's remedy routes first jobs through government, nonprofits and small firms.
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Maria Black's read of payroll data from more than 1 million clients moves the problem from headcount cuts to skills-based team design. ADP also happens to sell the remedy.
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Labor's share of nonfarm business output was 52.8% in the second quarter, the lowest since the series began in 1947, and the study now being read as the AI explanation for it measured just 11 highly exposed occupations.
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The three scenarios in Anthropic's new interactive model carry no probabilities and leave out recessions, policy and robots. The factor-share arithmetic inside them is still the part an allocator can use.
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The Anthropic Institute's three scenarios for 2030 run from half a point of extra GDP growth to 15% a year. The interactive model behind them makes you supply the missing variable, which is how much of what AI can do actually gets used.
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The middle case in Anthropic's new model puts US GDP at $36.3 trillion by 2030 with knowledge-worker pay flat, and what separates flat pay from a 10% cut is how quickly displaced people find other work.
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The Economics team's scenario explorer only turns ugly for knowledge workers once growth outruns anything in economic history. That is a demanding assumption to bury inside a headcount reduction plan.
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A commissioned YouGov survey puts U.S. AI displacement near 3%, with a sampling band about two points wide, and it excludes everyone currently out of work, which is precisely where the labor savings would be hiding.
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The central bank ties 268,000 of a 285,000 fall in jobs for 15- to 29-year-olds to AI-exposed industries. Exposure is not causation, but the vanishing rung it describes is real.
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AI-related capital spending added 1.1 points to US GDP growth in the first half of 2025, more than the consumer. That puts a handful of build plans inside every operator's baseline.
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Economist Gad Levanon checked task-based AI risk models against government employment data. The occupations rated most exposed grew, and the ones rated safe contracted.
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