Topic
Interest rates on government and corporate debt, set by bond market prices; the yield curve across maturities signals economy-wide borrowing costs.
IMF's fiscal monitor says average G7 10-year yields rose more than 1 percentage point after the Iran war began in February, to their highest in nearly two decades. It warns that waiting will make the eventual adjustment more painful. France and the UK both have budgets in play.
Reality
Treasury sold $121 billion of 3-, 10- and 30-year debt this week at the highest auction yields in over 20 years, including 5.30% on the 10-year. Buyers took all of it and the 10-year eased to 5.24% by Friday, so the week sets a clearing level for long debt that the next auctions will test.
Reality
CBO Director Phillip Swagel put the real growth needed to stop U.S. debt rising against GDP at 5%-6%, more than double the current pace. He told a Minneapolis Fed conference that what remains is tax and spending changes, which he called inherently political choices.
Reality
Foreign investors sold a net 1.75 trillion won of Korean shares on Tuesday as the KOSPI fell 0.89% to 6,941.39. Chipmakers led a drop that left breadth near even, so global bond yields are steering the index until third-quarter earnings give investors company numbers to price.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Ten-year Treasury yields closed the week at 5.28% after buyers who drove them down to 5.15% on Friday's jobs headlines gave the move back by afternoon. One afternoon's reversal is thin evidence that yields above 5% will hold, though the October 2023 spike never got that reaction.
Reality
Buyers pulled the 10-year Treasury yield from a 24-year high of 5.34% to a 5.233% close on Thursday, after its biggest quarterly rise since 1994. Part of that demand was a flight to safety, and part was a bet that the Fed holds off on further hikes.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Bank of America's September Global Fund Manager Survey keeps semis at number one for a fourth month, on 53% of respondents against 82% in July, and the newest positioning figure in the write-up is also from July.
Reality
It took 5.42% to place $13 billion of 20-year bonds, 21.6 basis points more than last month, and the indirect bidders who include foreign central banks took the smallest share in the maturity's six-year history.
Reality