Fed inspector general traces $2.5 billion renovation's cost surge to weak project management
Fed inspector general Michael Horowitz found no crime in the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation and blamed poor project management for its cost. His report moves the argument from Powell's testimony to the budget controls the Fed never put in place.
Reality
- Evidence65
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Hassett's case against another Fed hike rests on a three-month inflation window
Kevin Hassett, the White House's top economist, says three-month core inflation near 2% leaves the Fed little room to raise rates. Wednesday's August PCE release will test his window on the inflation gauge the Fed itself prefers.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives80
- Confidence50
The Fed's quarter-point hike arrived with a projections table carrying eighteen members' views of where rates finish the year and none from Kevin Warsh, who rejects forward guidance and says the next decision follows the data.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 43%
- Investor
- Investor 52%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives35
- Confidence68
Bloomberg's Levin argues government debt now constrains what the Fed can do
Jonathan Levin's case is that coordination between central banks and finance ministries has become a baseline condition. The cost, if he is right, lands on the discount investors grant US debt for perceived independence.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives58
- Confidence48
Warsh phoned Trump before raising rates to say the committee left him no choice
Forward guidance ended for the first time in 15 years. The increase that followed it arrived with no stated path. The Bank of Korea now has to decide whether to follow a chair who is keeping the path to himself.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence36
Warsh and Fed board unanimously approve quarter-point rate hike to fight inflation
Kevin Warsh's board voted unanimously for a 0.25-point increase with consumer prices up 3.4 percent in August. Navy Federal's chief economist says the Fed signaled two or three more hikes to come.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence40
Bessent's howitzer line gives Warsh cover to hike into White House pressure
Analysts expect a rise in the base rate when the FOMC concludes on Wednesday, against a White House that has lobbied hard for looser conditions. UBS's Paul Donovan says a surprise is what adds a bond risk premium.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives58
- Confidence42
Japan's bond dealers refuse the dip at a 3% ten-year yield
The 10-year JGB touched 3.027% before slipping back into the 2.9% range, while 40-year paper trades near 93 yen per 100 of face and insurers are asking their asset managers how to limit valuation losses.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives66
- Confidence52