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Critical Minerals Supply Chain

Global network of mining, processing, and refining rare earths and other minerals for semiconductors, magnets, and batteries, often strained by trade curbs.

Current stories

productOne report1 publisher

GM's Michigan mini factory will test cheaper EV battery cells before the big plants build them

GM's Warren, Michigan cell development center, priced at $900 million by its head, will prototype cheaper EV batteries, The Verge reported. Its subhead says the work takes half the time, a figure buyers cannot yet turn into a price or a launch date.

Publishers:theverge.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives55
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

DR Congo's subcontracting regulator flags $20 billion that 14 miners paid to ineligible suppliers

DR Congo's subcontracting regulator says 14 miners, including Glencore and Ivanhoe units, paid at least $20 billion to ineligible suppliers from 2020 to 2025. The cost to copper and cobalt producers depends on whether Congolese firms can replace the suppliers that fail.

Publishers:semafor.com

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives60
Confidence40
productOne report1 publisher

Moog is qualifying Niron's rare-earth-free magnets for military actuators ahead of commercial supply

Moog is qualifying Niron's rare-earth-free iron nitride magnets in military actuators while Niron's commercial production is still up to 18 months away. The supply security being pitched to Army buyers depends on that output arriving.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption15
Hype gap+35
Incentives75
Confidence40
productOne report1 publisher

Pentagon logistics agency hires Supra to test scandium recovery from industrial byproducts

Defense Logistics Agency gave Austin-based Supra a Phase I SBIR contract to test whether its process can recover scandium from industrial byproducts. For buyers who rely on imported scandium, the award pays for a first check of the chemistry, and high purity at scale is still unproven.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption10
Hype gap+40
Incentives65
Confidence40
productOne report1 publisher

Orano and the CEA say their Grenoble pilot line reliably makes N45UH magnets

Orano and the CEA say a Grenoble pilot line reliably makes N45UH magnets, in an EU that gets 98% of its rare-earth magnets from China. Motor and actuator buyers can start tracking the process for qualification, but the industrial line has not been built.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption8
Hype gap+45
Incentives70
Confidence40
productOne report1 publisher

USA Rare Earth's quantum extractant hunt starts with thousands of automated experiments

USA Rare Earth, Pasqal and Riven Systems say they will find better rare-earth extractants using an autonomous lab and quantum machine learning. In the plan announced September 17, the quantum processor's first job is a benchmark.

Reality

Evidence30
Adoption8
Hype gap+35
Incentives75
Confidence42
productOne report1 publisher

USA Rare Earth's $1.2 billion magnet plant starts commissioning in 2028

The Commerce Department is backing the South Carolina plant with up to $1.6 billion against a $1.2 billion build. Commissioning begins in 2028, so programs shipping before then keep the magnet supply they already have.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption25
Hype gap+30
Incentives78
Confidence52
productOne report1 publisher

Cyclic Materials opens a Mesa plant that can strip magnets from 25,000 tonnes of scrap a year

The tonnage on offer is an input figure: the Arizona plant is running commercially and expects its first customer shipments later this month, with more than 7,000 metric tons of feedstock already delivered.

Reality

Evidence32
Adoption42
Hype gap+30
Incentives72
Confidence44
productOne report1 publisher

Honda puts money behind iron-nitride magnets that ship from Sartell in 2027

The announcement names a 287,000-square-foot plant in Minnesota, an annual ceiling of 1,500 tons and a 2027 start. It puts no number on Honda's investment and no magnetic performance figure on the record.

Reality

Evidence30
Adoption12
Hype gap+35
Incentives72
Confidence58
productOne report1 publisher

Nova barges 500 tonnes of secondhand refining kit to Alaska for first antimony in 2027

The Defense Production Act put $43.4 million behind Nova Minerals and the barge has left Seattle, but the grade carrying the 2027 date is a defense trisulfide, leaving flame retardant and battery buyers on an undated later phase.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption20
Hype gap+35
Incentives75
Confidence45
productOne report1 publisher

America's only alumina refinery raises $800 million to add gallium output this fall

The Department of War and a Pinnacle-managed fund are putting in $400 million each, which keeps the only US smelter-grade alumina plant running and pays for a gallium pilot that is still in testing and promising first metal this fall.

Reality

Evidence30
Adoption20
Hype gap+35
Incentives80
Confidence45
productOne report1 publisher

EM&T's 10,000-ton magnet target runs through a KEPCO substation

Evolution Metals wants ten times the magnet output from its Pohang plant. The gating item is a power connection that has to grow from 130 megawatts to about 750, and the utility is covering most of that build.

Reality

Evidence32
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+46
Incentives76
Confidence62
investOne report1 publisher

Tungsten up 622%: the AI buildout's chokepoint is an 8,800-ton gas market

China's export licence list, not fab capacity or megawatts, is what set the 2026 tungsten price. The arithmetic behind the gas that deposits the metal is smaller than most capex plans assume.

Reality

Evidence22
Adoption30
Hype gap+45
Incentives65
Confidence30
investOne report1 publisher

Washington says it offered Canada its best terms. The 50% tariff now looks like the settlement.

Greer's account leaves neither capital a price at which to re-enter. No talks are scheduled, and duties on more than $20bn of goods carry a roughly $10bn bill.

Reality

Evidence24
Adoption62
Hype gap+31
Incentives74
Confidence33
productOne report1 publisher

Princeton Critical Minerals' $16M buys its way into other people's ponds

The raise is small for lithium. That is the point: retrofitting extraction into working Chilean evaporation ponds skips the land, permits and buildout that stall new brine projects.

Reality

Evidence24
Adoption27
Hype gap+44
Incentives78
Confidence33
productOne report1 publisher

Infleqtion points quantum gravity sensing at mining's worst line item: drilling blind

A 2027 Colorado field test will try to show that quantum gravity gradiometry can rank targets before the rigs arrive. The site, the date and the success bar are all still unnamed.

Reality

Evidence20
Adoption12
Hype gap+28
Incentives80
Confidence42
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Exelon's $300,000 check is not the product. Its 11 million customers are.

A utility foundation with a $20 million commitment reports $555 million in follow-on capital, a multiple National Grid's $500 million venture arm has not matched. The lesson is distribution, not dollars.

Publishers:forbes.com

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption46
Hype gap+28
Incentives72
Confidence40
productOne report1 publisher

A 2027 Pentagon deadline is pulling magnet-grade iron onshore, one ton a day at a time

Hertha Metals says it hit 99.95 percent purity with US-only inputs. That material is about 70 percent of a neodymium magnet by weight, and Chinese-origin constituents are barred from January 1, 2027.

Reality

Evidence26
Adoption11
Hype gap+44
Incentives82
Confidence34