Patagonia's 3,620-megawatt AI pitch starts as 460 megawatts still hunting financing
Neuquen and Chubut have gas, hydro, wind and cold air, but the named projects are asking for roughly $2.3bn they do not yet have, and the only anchor customer so far is a letter of intent signed in October 2025.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption11
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives74
- Confidence38
Microsoft's $19.4bn Nebius contract works out to under $194,000 per GB300
The deal is the largest slice of more than $33bn Microsoft has committed to specialist GPU clouds. It leaves the fleet, the debt behind it and the 18-month depreciation clock on someone else's balance sheet.
Reality
- Evidence27
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives66
- Confidence31
Vertiv bets up to $2.6bn that the power bottleneck sits outside the building
UtilityInnovation does real-time load and frequency balancing behind the meter. Nearly half of Vertiv's maximum price rides on 12- and 24-month financial targets, a bet that the orders are already queued.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives78
- Confidence60
Private holdings ran from $22.3bn to $47.9bn in under a year, with another $18bn committed. Anyone reading Nvidia's demand signal is partly reading capital Nvidia itself supplied, though its CFO rejects that framing.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence64
Emerald AI is worth $1.05bn on the theory that grid headroom is a scheduling problem
A $150mn Series A backed by Nvidia, Siemens, RWE and GE Vernova prices workload curtailment as the cheap answer to interconnection queues. The demonstrated evidence is one cluster.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives82
- Confidence55
Bitcoin miners are selling coins below cost to become AI landlords
Peter Schiff says AI bids against Bitcoin for capital, power and space. The contract arithmetic suggests that at the level of the individual site, the argument is already over.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption64
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence38