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Topic

Derivatives regulation

How swaps, security-based swaps and novel leveraged products are defined and which agency's rulebook applies.

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

CFTC takes casino sportsbooks out of the swap definition and proposes to put sports event contracts in

CFTC issued an interim final rule on Oct. 9 excluding state- and tribal-licensed casino sportsbooks from the swap definition. A proposal published the same day would treat exchange-traded sports and politics event contracts as swaps, so federal treatment would follow the venue.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

States and tribal nations press the Supreme Court to rule on sports prediction contracts

Thirty-nine states, D.C., 145 tribal nations, the NFL and Gary Gensler urged the Supreme Court to decide whether sports prediction contracts are swaps. Two of the three appeals courts to rule have called those contracts state-regulated gambling, so platforms on federal licenses still face two possible regulators.

Publishers:coindesk.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives65
Confidence55
investConfirmed4 publishers

Ninth Circuit hands Nevada the power to enforce gaming law against Kalshi's sports markets

A unanimous panel decided that Kalshi's contracts on who wins a game are likely bets rather than swaps, which turns one federal registration back into a fifty-state licensing problem for the exchange.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 13%
Operator
Operator 56%
Investor
Investor 31%

Reality

Evidence78
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives50
Confidence74
investConfirmed4 publishers

Polymarket's $6bn markup is six times the cash the round brings in

Polymarket has hired Warren Jenson, formerly finance chief at Amazon, Delta Air Lines and Nielsen, to set capital strategy for a business now marked at about $21bn with no revenue figure attached to it.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 8%
Operator
Operator 41%
Investor
Investor 51%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption55
Hype gap+35
Incentives65
Confidence60
leadershipOne report1 publisher

CFTC staff turn Phantom's wallet no-action letter into a class-wide position

Staff Letter 26-25 lets a passive front end display derivatives, pass orders to registered markets and take a fee without broker registration, so long as it stays out of custody, routing and advice. The position lasts until the Commission acts.

Publishers:news.bitcoin.com

Reality

Evidence48
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives62
Confidence52
investOne report1 publisher

CME sues the CFTC over a market 21 times its own crypto futures book

The exchange wants Bitcoin perpetuals reclassified as swaps, a label that would put Kalshi under swap dealer registration and higher capital requirements. CME's crypto futures did about $4.4 trillion of notional last year.

Reality

Evidence28
Adoption55
Hype gap+32
Incentives72
Confidence38
investOne report1 publisher

Kalshi's 60 stock and ETF perpetuals need both the CFTC and the SEC to say yes

Kalshi plans to file for about 60 perpetual futures on mega-cap names including Tesla, Apple and Nvidia, each contract 100 shares at roughly 15% margin, and because equities are securities the product lands at two regulators at once.

Reality

Evidence32
Adoption28
Hype gap+32
Incentives68
Confidence36
investOne report1 publisher

Citadel asks the SEC to claim the KPI contracts that list one business day after filing

The market maker told both agencies on September 9 that contracts settling on a company's revenue or passenger counts are security-based swaps, and that the venues listing them picked their own regulator.

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives72
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Kalshi lines up sixty stock perps that would keep trading after Nasdaq closes

The Wall Street Journal says Kalshi has prepared to seek approval for roughly 60 perpetual futures on stocks and ETFs, traded around the clock. Citadel Securities says equity-linked perps belong with the SEC.

Publishers:crypto.news

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption18
Hype gap+20
Incentives74
Confidence46