Trump's $5,000 midterm dividend swings between a $1.35 trillion and a $1.7 trillion bill
Donald Trump's $5,000 midterm dividend has alternated between adult citizens and all citizens, a 73 million-person gap. With only 21% of registered voters expecting the check in an Economist/YouGov poll, the pledge is a conditional promise with two possible price tags.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives80
- Confidence50
The $5,000 check Trump promised at the Republican midterm convention would cost about $1.35 trillion by one Wharton estimate. It rests on tariff revenue the Supreme Court has already narrowed.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+70
- Incentives80
- Confidence66
Trump promised $5,000 to each American adult if his party keeps its congressional majorities, and Fortune reports that such a proposal could cost more than $1 trillion. No financing was attached to it.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 48%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+60
- Incentives85
- Confidence70
Trump promised American adults $5,000 each if Republicans hold Congress, a payout put near $1.3 trillion, and the two Republican leaders who would have to legislate it have both declined to promise it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 6%
- Operator
- Operator 47%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+65
- Incentives72
- Confidence60
A Wharton economist prices Trump's $5,000 dividend at $1.35 trillion of new borrowing
Kent Smetters of the Penn Wharton Budget Model puts the checks at about $1.35 trillion, or $1.15 trillion if a $400,000 income cap he supplied himself applies, against a federal deficit already running near $2 trillion a year.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
Funding Trump's $5,000 dividend at 4.92 per cent adds about $59bn a year in coupon
A Fortune column pins the 30-year's move to 5.35 per cent on Trump's Dallas pledge and prices the payment at $8,000 a head. That second figure holds only if the coupons are borrowed too.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence50