Delhi's exam protests have become a dispute over the Election Commission's credibility
Delhi protesters demand the chief election commissioner resign over a purge of more than 130 million names from draft voter lists, Foreign Affairs reports. It judges Modi in no danger of falling, yet calls the protests the most significant challenge to his authority since 2014.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
International IDEA logs disinformation in at least 62% of 2025's national elections
International IDEA's review of 39 national elections in 2025 recorded disinformation narratives in at least 62% of them. Its authors still judge election quality broadly stable and offer 20 case studies as lessons for other countries.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
A staged supermajority hands Putin cover to escalate through the winter
Foreign Affairs argues last weekend's United Russia landslide was organised in advance to display total commitment to the war, while the Levada Center's own numbers show approval and public morale falling underneath it.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives58
- Confidence46
Burnham puts social media companies inside the UK's information defence structure
The National Centre for Information Defence is meant to detect, attribute and disrupt foreign information attacks. The evidence Burnham cited includes Russian forgery of the branding of 28 British organisations.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
AB 1130 gives the Fair Political Practices Commission power to fine an undisclosed paid political post $5,000 and to refer it to law enforcement. The penalty follows the creator who took the campaign's money.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives58
- Confidence70
Confidence that US votes are counted as intended has fallen 22 points since the 2024 election
UC San Diego's election center puts confidence in the national vote count at 55%, down from 77% just after the 2024 election. The fall since January has been steepest among independents.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Kalshi and Polymarket will trade the midterms before any court rules on their legality
The litigation over whether election wagers are illegal gambling will not conclude before votes are counted, which leaves the platforms booking their largest volume inside about 25 states whose statutes ban it.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives75
- Confidence58
3.2 million replies, 88 candidates, and the gender gap that prevalence metrics erase
A European Commission analysis found women candidates drew 71% of the worst abuse on X, and a different kind of it. Divide by reply volume and the gap stops being significant.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives58
- Confidence45