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Topic

Election Integrity and Political Discourse

Topic covering threats to free, fair elections and healthy political debate, including disinformation, interference, and declining voter trust.

Current stories

leadershipOne report1 publisher

Delhi's exam protests have become a dispute over the Election Commission's credibility

Delhi protesters demand the chief election commissioner resign over a purge of more than 130 million names from draft voter lists, Foreign Affairs reports. It judges Modi in no danger of falling, yet calls the protests the most significant challenge to his authority since 2014.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
scienceOne report1 publisher

International IDEA logs disinformation in at least 62% of 2025's national elections

International IDEA's review of 39 national elections in 2025 recorded disinformation narratives in at least 62% of them. Its authors still judge election quality broadly stable and offer 20 case studies as lessons for other countries.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
leadershipOne report1 publisher

A staged supermajority hands Putin cover to escalate through the winter

Foreign Affairs argues last weekend's United Russia landslide was organised in advance to display total commitment to the war, while the Levada Center's own numbers show approval and public morale falling underneath it.

Reality

Evidence44
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives58
Confidence46
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Burnham puts social media companies inside the UK's information defence structure

The National Centre for Information Defence is meant to detect, attribute and disrupt foreign information attacks. The evidence Burnham cited includes Russian forgery of the branding of 28 British organisations.

Publishers:theguardian.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption12
Hype gap+35
Incentives70
Confidence50
scienceOne report1 publisher

Confidence that US votes are counted as intended has fallen 22 points since the 2024 election

UC San Diego's election center puts confidence in the national vote count at 55%, down from 77% just after the 2024 election. The fall since January has been steepest among independents.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives55
Confidence60
investOne report1 publisher

Kalshi and Polymarket will trade the midterms before any court rules on their legality

The litigation over whether election wagers are illegal gambling will not conclude before votes are counted, which leaves the platforms booking their largest volume inside about 25 states whose statutes ban it.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption40
Hype gap+18
Incentives75
Confidence58
scienceOne report1 publisher

3.2 million replies, 88 candidates, and the gender gap that prevalence metrics erase

A European Commission analysis found women candidates drew 71% of the worst abuse on X, and a different kind of it. Divide by reply volume and the gap stops being significant.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence48
Adoption30
Hype gap+14
Incentives58
Confidence45