Mazama Energy has $135 million to push a well at Oregon's Newberry site toward rock at 750F. The technology's first outside test is a generation demonstration at 15 megawatts per well, and the company is still seeking certification of the 10 gigawatt claim on the site.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Google contracts 396 megawatts of Fervo geothermal for delivery starting in 2028
Fervo's Cape Station geocluster in Beaver County, Utah is meant to begin operating in 2028, and Google holds an option to raise its offtake toward a gigawatt by June 2030. No price has been published.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives66
- Confidence50
Google will pay extra for heat that never stops, and Nevada wrote it into a tariff
Ormat's up-to-150MW deal with Google is more than ten times its first data centre contract, and the emerging-technology premium rides on the buyer's bill. Delivery starts in 2028.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence44
Ormat's fracked-rock bet has data-center contracts through 2030 and no commercial EGS wells yet
The geothermal operator has 163 MW of signed data-center PPAs and a 2028 build target needing about five times that. Its enhanced-geothermal pilots will not report costs until the contracts are running.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption33
- Hype gap+46
- Incentives78
- Confidence45
Ormat's fracking bet: geothermal anywhere, tested where geothermal already works
The world's largest geothermal operator wants to sell AI data centers power anywhere. Its two pilots sit at plants it already owns, and revenue is growing ten times faster than profit.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives72
- Confidence52