Topic
Binary or scalar derivatives that pay out based on whether a defined real-world event occurs, traded on U.S. designated contract markets.
Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume reached $53 billion in July, an annual pace above Bernstein's forecast for all of 2026, and Senate Banking Democrats say contracts tied to corporate metrics belong to the SEC.
Reality
Bernstein has raised its ten-year prediction-market forecast tenfold, to $10 trillion of annual volume by 2035. Nearly half of that total comes from assuming the contracts capture 0.5% of a $900 trillion financial-asset pool.
Reality
The market maker told both agencies on September 9 that contracts settling on a company's revenue or passenger counts are security-based swaps, and that the venues listing them picked their own regulator.
Reality
Event contracts brought in $156m last quarter on 13.6 billion tickets, which is the arithmetic behind Robinhood buying equity in a contract supplier as well as listing its markets. OG.com's contracts go live on September 8.
Reality
Robinhood is paying Citadel's July price for an undisclosed minority slice of the venue that will clear volume Robinhood can move at will, which makes OG.com a fourth supplier rather than an owned engine.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality