Wind shear eased off the Gulf Coast long enough for Isaias to form in a quiet Atlantic season
Hurricane Isaias killed at least four people after landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, Scientific American reported. Two meteorologists quoted there say a quiet season narrows where storms can form without softening the one that does.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Central Pacific's Niño 3.4 region passes 30C for the first time as El Niño strengthens
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific's Niño 3.4 region passed 30 degrees Celsius for the first time, preliminary data released Oct. 5 show. On the anomaly measures that remove global ocean warming, the event is already close to the strongest El Niño on record, Timothy Osborn of the University of East Anglia told Live Science.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
NOAA gives 75% odds that this El Nino outranks every event back to 1950
The eastern Pacific is running 2.1 C above average on weekly NOAA data, past the 2 C mark for a super event. The official strength category comes from three-month averages, and the regional outlook comes with a caveat attached.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
The annual Planetary Health Check counts seven of nine boundaries transgressed, ocean acidification among them since 2025, and puts carbon dioxide at 426 parts per million against 280 before industrialisation. More than 60 scientists signed it.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence68
Climate hazards interrupted schooling for 171 million students in UNICEF's 2025 count
UNICEF's snapshot covers one year in 106 countries and counts students reached by a hazard, a smaller measurement than school days lost. The one-in-ten framing implies a base near 1.7 billion students.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives80
- Confidence55