Topic
The Federal Reserve's setting of US short-term interest rates and the employment and inflation data it weighs when deciding.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $3 billion over eight sessions as oil lifted Treasury yields to 2007 highs, holding Bitcoin near $84,000. Onchain profit-taking adds sellers as this week's inflation and jobs data decide which side gives first.
Reality
None of the Fed's own participants put the risks to GDP growth on the downside, in the same week the central bank raised rates for the first time in three years. Business Insider argues the fiscal support under 2026 spending reverses next year.
Reality
The Fed's first hike in three years took its benchmark to 3.75%-4% and the Dow down 1.7% for a third straight losing week. Chipmakers and data center suppliers sold off Monday on AI safety headlines and got most of it back by Friday.
Reality
Dean Curnutt's 2018 analogy runs through margins at companies that cannot pass costs on. Traders moved from about 60% odds to almost fully priced on a quarter point in a week, and the S&P fell about 1% while they did it.
Reality
Bitcoin gained about 3% to $79,000 and took back its 50-week average at $77,430 after Trump said Iran wants a deal. Crude dipped but held above $100, and CME's FedWatch tool puts Wednesday's quarter-point hike at 92.7%.
Reality
James Reilly's September 10 report has the S&P 500 cracking next year and eventually falling at least 30% from its high, while Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's committee still carries a year-end target of 8,000.
Reality
Gross interest on the public debt reached about $1.17 trillion through July, roughly $117 billion a month on a fiscal-year count. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says that bill undermines the case for further hikes.
Reality
Economists surveyed by FactSet see headline inflation easing to 3.3% in August while the month itself runs at 0.4%. The tenth that comes off the annual rate comes from the month dropping out of the twelve-month window.
Reality
The participation rate has fallen 0.7 points since January; Morgan Stanley's trend aging covers 0.1 of that and Goldman's youth seasonal noise up to 0.2, leaving a residual of roughly 0.4 to 0.5 points that the Fed has yet to attribute.
Reality