Topic
Markets where governments issue and trade sovereign debt; yields reflect expectations for policy rates, inflation and duration risk.
UK 30-year gilt yields hit their highest level since 1998 this week as a global bond sell-off deepened. Economists cited by the Guardian think about half of the £24bn fiscal buffer has already gone before John Healey's first budget on 28 October.
Reality
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said an energy shock, record public debt and the AI boom threaten global growth, with Brent crude back above $100. For 2027 plans, the firmer signal is expensive money: US and UK government yields are above 5% while UK household spending holds up.
Reality
US 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.34% on 1 October, the highest since 2002, in a selloff Reuters partly ties to AI and data-centre construction. For teams that borrow to build, AI's own investment is part of why markets expect rates to stay high into 2027.
Reality
Traders betting on lasting inflation pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.145% on Thursday, its highest since the 2007 financial crisis. Oil back above $105 keeps that bet alive, and AXA's chief economist names two more pressures, tech-sector borrowing and US debt, that would survive a truce.
Reality
Iran says it is fully closing the Strait of Hormuz just as government bond rates climb worldwide. An energy shock into a rising-rate market leaves the usual offset unavailable.
Reality
James Galbraith says long yields are the current short rate plus the expected path of short rates and very little else, so the bond rout is a hike forecast, and because one-and-done is rare the smallest sequence worth pricing is 50 basis points.
Reality