Topic
The rate at which prices for goods and services rise over time, a core economic indicator that central banks monitor when setting interest-rate policy.
Diesel averaged $6.30 a gallon on Wednesday, about 68% above its level before the Iran war, according to AAA. Fed district reports describe surcharges spreading, with some firms able to reprice and others absorbing the cost.
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U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in September to $745.0 billion, but only 0.2% when gasoline is excluded, AP and Bloomberg reported. The series is not adjusted for prices, so the 0.6-point gap is the part of the gain most exposed to fuel inflation.
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Social Security will raise benefits 3.6% in 2027 for more than 75 million Americans, the largest increase in four years. Advocates say it will not restore purchasing power already lost, and one group backs two bills to change the index.
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Activity rose in nine of 12 Fed districts in the October Beige Book, but most reported little or no change in consumer spending. More than half said high-income households supplied much of it, and a PYMNTS survey showed confidence falling for a second month.
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New York Fed President John Williams still backs one more rate hike this year, he told Bloomberg on Tuesday. Cointelegraph reported that he sees AI hardware supply taking over two years to catch up with demand, with rates unlikely to slow AI investment.
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Social Security's 3.6% COLA for January 2027 adds an average $75 a month for nearly 72 million people and trails 3.7% CPI-U inflation. Advisors quoted by American Banker see an opening to review retirement income plans, with healthcare-heavy budgets the most exposed.
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China's producer prices rose 5% in September from a year earlier, the fastest since June 2022, while consumer prices rose 0.9%. The 4.1-point gap leaves manufacturers holding costs households will not absorb, though neither report published margin data.
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Economists expect Wednesday's September CPI to show a 0.6% monthly rise as Iran-war energy costs push Brent to about $105. RSM warns forecasts may undershoot, and the Fed's October hike depends on the core reading.
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Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the September CPI to show 3.7% annual inflation, up from 3.4%, NBC News reported. Operators budgeting freight costs face a fuel that has outrun gasoline, and the clearest pass-through evidence so far comes from airlines.
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IMF raised its 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.3% from 1%, and trimmed 2027 to 1.2% from 1.3%. Its 2027 inflation forecast moved further, to 2.8% from 2.4%, and the IFS says inflation will erode departmental budgets before the 28 October Budget.
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Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed will have to raise rates "a bit further" after last month's 25-basis-point hike. Her own central case still has inflation easing to 2%, so how far depends on whether fuel and AI-construction costs spread.
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Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said on Oct 13 that policy stays restrictive until inflation is confidently converging on the 2% target. That makes easing a distant prospect for Korean borrowers and for investors in Korean assets.
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The IFS says inflation could force Chancellor John Healey to add up to £35bn to departmental budgets by decade-end, a bigger problem than borrowing costs. Headroom for 2029-30 slips only to about £20bn from £24bn, so the harder Budget call is on departmental spending.
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Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, a voter this year, said Monday she prefers smaller, faster rate adjustments after September's quarter-point hike. Cryptopolitan counts 15 of 33 major central banks tightening in six months, a 45% share.
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Federal Reserve minutes released Oct. 7 show officials backed September's unanimous hike to 3.75%-4% for two different reasons. Because each camp needs different evidence, one soft inflation report probably won't stop another hike, CryptoSlate argues.
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New York Fed economists estimate Trump's tariffs had raised US consumer goods prices 2.9 points by February 2026. The inflation effect has since peaked, but the higher price level persists and the researchers expect the tariff impact to carry into next year.
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Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he expects more rate hikes to bring inflation back to 2%, though they need not come at consecutive meetings. For anyone borrowing at short-term rates, the open question is now timing, and the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting is the first chance to act.
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Federal Reserve minutes show most officials see room for one more rate increase this year after September's unanimous quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4%. Many officials called it insurance against persistent inflation and committed to no set path.
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The Fed took its target range to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and raised its median PCE forecast to 3.7% in the same document, so the real cost of holding a metal that pays no coupon moved by about a sixth of a point.
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CME's FedWatch has Wednesday's quarter point at 94.5%, up from under half a month ago, and the ten-year at 5.04% shows bond desks bought it in advance. The forecasts still diverge on what follows.
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