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Onchain Analytics

Analysis of public blockchain data to track wallet activity, token flows, transaction volumes and market share, used by traders, researchers and investigators.

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

Gas cut the share of small Uniswap v3 positions beating holding from 51% to 18%, Bitquery finds

Bitquery found gas cut the share of sub-$1,000 Uniswap v3 positions that beat holding from 51% to 18% across eight Ethereum pools. Uniswap v4 trims transfer costs but leaves in place the price-range inventory changes behind the larger loss.

Publishers:cryptoslate.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption40
Hype gap−10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
investOne report1 publisher

CryptoQuant rates ETH neutral after $345 million of Binance longs were liquidated

CryptoQuant says about $345 million of Binance ETH longs were liquidated on Oct 8-9, with funding rates near zero. It still rates conditions neutral because Binance USDT reserves fell 2.3% and the Coinbase Premium is not yet rising.

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Onchain trackers trace nearly a fifth of Hut 8's bitcoin stack to trading venues in a week

A Hut 8-linked wallet sent 1,966 BTC, about $161 million, to exchanges and OTC desks in seven days, Bitcoin News reported. Hut 8 has not explained the moves, and onchain data cannot show whether the coins were sold.

Publishers:news.bitcoin.com

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence45
investConfirmed6 publishers

Chainalysis counts 138 million x402 agent payments, most of them worth 10 cents or less

Chainalysis counted more than 138 million agent payments through x402 on Base, over 87% of them worth 10 cents or less. CoinDesk noted that transaction counts alone do not establish how much is genuine commercial demand.

Perspective Coverage

7 publishers
Builder
Builder 33%
Operator
Operator 25%
Investor
Investor 42%

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption38
Hype gap+30
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence62
investOne report1 publisher

Bitcoin's $80,000 support sits 10% below the $88,000 cost basis of holders seeking to exit

Glassnode says Bitcoin must reclaim $88,000, the cost basis of six-to-twelve-month holders, after US spot ETFs shed about $760 million since October 7. It wants sustained ETF inflows as confirmation, and hot September CPI has raised expectations of another Fed hike.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption50
Hype gap−5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
investConfirmed4 publishers

A wallet that received bitcoin in March 2020 sends $378M to five addresses

A bitcoin wallet that has held coins since March 2020 sent 4,582 BTC, worth $377.6 million, to five addresses, and none has moved them. CryptoQuant's Darkfost reported negative Coinbase premiums with bitcoin near $83,000, so the move invites a selling read that no on-chain sale yet confirms.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 7%
Operator
Operator 19%
Investor
Investor 74%

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence72
investOne report1 publisher

Hyperliquid whale rebuilds its ether long 8% above the next forced sale

One Hyperliquid whale lost 28,716 ETH, worth $69.69 million, to forced liquidation on Oct. 9, then posted 10 million USDC of fresh margin within half an hour. Its rebuilt 78,955 ETH long now liquidates about 8% below the market, Bitcoin.com News reported, at prices anyone can see.

Publishers:news.bitcoin.com

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Citi's old flow ratio carries Bitcoin to about $102,600, short of the bank's $113,000 target

Citi raised its twelve-month Bitcoin target to $113,000, a call that needs a 36% gain from the Oct. 7 price. Citi's own 2025 flow ratio reaches only about $102,600 when applied to the bank's $5 billion inflow forecast, CryptoSlate calculated.

Publishers:cryptoslate.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption40
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Onchain spot demand for bitcoin stays negative despite a $2.39 billion ETF week

US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.39 billion from September 21 to 25, yet CryptoQuant's 30-day estimate of spot demand was still negative on October 1. Fund subscriptions alone cannot show that the rally has buyers beyond the ETF channel.

Publishers:crypto.news

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption50
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

Spot Ether ETFs shed $206 million in five sessions as the price holds near $2,700

US spot Ether ETFs recorded net outflows for five straight sessions through October 5, totaling $205.88 million, as ETH held near $2,711. The withdrawals coincide with a leverage ratio at a seven-month low, leaving one of the market's main demand channels in retreat while spot buyers absorb the selling.

Publishers:cryptoslate.com

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap0
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence38
investOne report1 publisher

Robinhood Chain's 97% fee collapse reflects both a 96% price drop and a 32% decline in transactions

The gap between a 97% fall in gas income and a 32% fall in transactions on Robinhood Chain is almost entirely price, since the average fee went from about 64 cents to 2.6 cents in roughly two weeks.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption72
Hype gap+12
Incentives28
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

A median mid-cap altcoin needs 392% to catch Bitcoin's last two years

Glassnode and Bybit put Bitcoin up 28% over two years while the median mid-cap token lost 74%, and the futures leverage has pooled in the losers, at about 24% of PEPE's market cap against 2% of Bitcoin's. The fund flows point the same way.

Publishers:decrypt.co

Reality

Evidence48
Adoption62
Hype gap+14
Incentives66
Confidence52
investOne report1 publisher

One memecoin launchpad traded half of Circle's new Arc chain on day one

Arc's mainnet opened with $410.8 million of DEX volume, and $336.3 million of it came off nineteen memecoin launchpads, leaving $74.6 million to test what Circle actually built the chain to settle.

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption45
Hype gap+22
Incentives62
Confidence48
investOne report1 publisher

BIS finds one accounting choice swings Bitcoin's transfer volume sixfold

The Bank for International Settlements read about 100 billion records off Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron and concluded onchain indicators are rough approximations. Anything priced off them inherits the spread.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives45
Confidence60
investOne report1 publisher

Brokerage distribution helped push Kalshi to 96% of non-sports prediction market volume

Artemis put Kalshi at 96% of non-sports prediction-market volume in the week to Sept. 13, up from roughly half in early June. The contracts its brokerage partners lead with settle inside sixty minutes.

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption60
Hype gap+34
Incentives55
Confidence42
investOne report1 publisher

Euro stablecoin supply grew 22.6% into a dollar market that added 0.05%

Token Terminal data puts euro stablecoins at $848.1m, up about $156m since January, roughly what the $298.7bn dollar segment managed over the same eight months, which says more about where dollar issuance stopped than about euro demand.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption35
Hype gap+8
Incentives40
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

The agent payment rail cleared 8.7 million transfers last week, and $367,950

Weekly x402 stablecoin transfers doubled and Base's share of them fell to 48 percent. The dollars behind those transfers annualize to about $19 million.

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption34
Hype gap+12
Incentives55
Confidence44