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Permafrost Thaw and Arctic Carbon

Zero-curtain dynamics, microbial activity near freezing, and the release of stored organic carbon from thawing Arctic ground.

Current stories

scienceOne report1 publisher

Alaskan lake cores show hillslope erosion running 2 to 3 times higher on patchy permafrost

Özpolat and colleagues found hillslope erosion 2 to 3 times more intense under discontinuous permafrost, using cores from 12 Alaska lakes. The cores come from landscapes near their present state, and the authors say the gap may be site-specific.

Publishers:eos.org phys.org

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence58
scienceOne report1 publisher

Two studies put permafrost's added warming at a quarter degree Celsius by 2100

Two studies project that carbon leaking from thawing Arctic permafrost will add about a quarter degree Celsius of warming by 2100, beyond fossil fuels. Permafrost researchers Sue Natali and Gustaf Hugelius said the UN's 2.6C outlook for the century leaves that extra out.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
scienceOne report1 publisher

Drones carry electromagnetic sensors over Alaska's tundra to find where permafrost has thawed

Civil engineers are developing drone-carried electromagnetic surveys to find thawed permafrost in Alaska, where thaw damage could reach $51 billion. The surveys show crews where to look closely before drilling, though their depth estimates are still uncertain.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption10
Hype gap+5
Incentives40
Confidence50
scienceConfirmed6 publishers

Nepal's deluge began as a glacier falling a kilometre into a river it then dammed

Satellite and seismic analyses point to ice that snapped off above 5,000 metres, blocked the Lhende Khola and burst through hours later. Almost no rain preceded it, which is why the region's flood warning tools had nothing to read.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 43%
Operator
Operator 38%
Investor
Investor 19%

Reality

Evidence74
Adoption62
Hype gap−8
Incentives34
Confidence70
scienceOne report1 publisher

The Arctic's slow freeze finally gets mapped, and permafrost models lose an excuse

A NASA-led AI mapping effort puts Arctic-wide extent on the weeks-long near-freezing window when soil microbes keep breathing. Spring windows run longer than autumn ones. No flux number is attached yet.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption18
Hype gap+18
Incentives52
Confidence55