Topic
Rapidly compounding private marks for frontier labs and AI companies — OpenAI at $852bn, Anthropic at $965bn after $380bn a quarter earlier, Reflection AI's reported $25bn ask — and the difficulty of pricing them without a market quote.
MNX, built by Manifold Markets, launched futures on OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek and Moonshot that expire at end-2027 and allow 3x leverage. Settlement may differ from what private shares fetch, so a holder is betting on the exit rule as well as the company.
Reality
Insight Partners manages more than $90 billion and holds late-stage co-investment exposure to both OpenAI and Anthropic, but its direct AI money goes to vertical applications. The legal AI round it skipped is now priced at $5.55 billion.
Reality
DeFiLlama now marks the two labs at $2.28 trillion against an implied $544 billion a year ago, which leaves every bank pitching an AI listing to price against a reference no public order book has tested.
Reality
The Information reports a valuation more than 50% above the last round, with a licensing arrangement considered alongside it. Buyers of AI search should read the roadmap as supplier-driven.
Reality
The continuation fund buying Lightspeed's OpenAI stake will be managed by Lightspeed. Coller Capital's cheque is the only outside check on the transfer price.
Reality