Hurricane Simon passed about 50 km off Mexico's Pacific coast on Oct. 11 as a Category 4 storm with winds near 210 km/h, NASA reported. The Sierra Madre appeared to shrink its wind field, while news reports described flooding in Manzanillo.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Nighttime-lights imagery shows substantial dimming west of Isaias's eye after Destin landfall
NASA's Black Marble HD imagery shows nighttime lights falling west of Isaias's eye after the storm came ashore near Destin with 105 mph winds. Lights are a proxy for electric service, so the images suggest where power was disrupted.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives40
- Confidence60
Arctic ice is thinner and younger after a decade of steadier September minimums
Arctic sea ice hit its 2026 minimum on September 12 at about 4.6 million square kilometers, tied for 10th lowest on record. NASA Earth Observatory says the remaining ice is thinner and younger, and scientists still warn of a nearly ice-free summer before 2050.
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Landsat images show farmland and aquaculture along Thailand's Bang Pakong River under water
NASA's Landsat images show farmland and aquaculture along Prachin Buri's Bang Pakong River flooded on 2 October 2026, set against the same season in 2025. The pair is strong evidence of how far the water spread that day and weaker evidence of what caused it.
Reality
- Evidence65
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Lubbock farmer says about 90% of her dryland cotton died in the 2026 drought
Lacy Cotter-Vardeman says roughly 90% of her Lubbock County dryland cotton died in the 2026 drought. So far, her farm is the only evidence that this was a new kind of loss, worse than the crop abandonment of 2011 and 2022.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
Landsat 9 photographs three boreal rivers pouring tea-brown water into James Bay
Landsat 9 imaged the Moose, Nottaway and Harricanaw rivers carrying tea-colored water into James Bay's southern bays on September 27, 2026. The stain is dissolved organic matter from boreal bog and forest. NASA's account gives no estimate of the carbon it carries.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
EarthCARE's lidar helped Darwin forecasters confirm the height of Anak Krakatau's ash plume
Australia's Darwin ash-advisory centre used ESA's EarthCARE lidar to confirm that Anak Krakatau's westward plume sat near 15 km, as forecast. That check brought a satellite built to study clouds and Earth's energy balance into aviation advice in near-real time.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Geoscience Australia's Sentinel-2 maps flag dry vegetation in the normal-risk ACT
Geoscience Australia's public Sentinel-2 tool maps vegetation moisture at 20-metre resolution about every five days. In the ACT, rated normal risk by the national outlook, it showed a dry south and faster drying than in most recent years.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Passenger estimates for the two-day closure run above 300,000. The 1883 eruption that built this volcano killed about 35,000, almost all by tsunami, and that mechanism needs the edifice to collapse rather than the plume to climb.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 22%
- Operator
- Operator 63%
- Investor
- Investor 15%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
The IMBIE team merged 42 independent satellite surveys from 27 missions to account for 11.3 trillion tonnes of ice lost from Greenland and Antarctica since 1979, and it assigns 84% of that loss to glaciers accelerating into the ocean.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 48%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 8%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives30
- Confidence72
Reclamation sent Flaming Gorge water downstream to hold up Lake Powell's hydropower
Lake Powell's surface read 3,517.24 feet on September 10, the lowest on record, after the Upper Colorado Basin's 2025-2026 snowpack came in thin and record warmth took more of it before the melt reached the river.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption65
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives40
- Confidence70
A satellite record reaching back to 1972 assigns five-sixths of ice-sheet loss to warm ocean water
An ESA-led team pooled 45 surveys from 27 satellites to weigh Greenland and Antarctica back to the 1970s. It finds 11.3 trillion metric tons of ice gone since 1979, five-sixths of it to water working from below.
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives38
- Confidence76
A small, routinely active volcano between Java and Sumatra produced a day of explosive eruption whose effects on flying and on air quality took several days to clear, and the flight tally in circulation comes from news reports.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives32
- Confidence68
Diverse stands lost less productivity when heat and drought arrived together in 88,116 US plots
A Peking University-led team matched US forest inventories to satellite productivity and found that heat and moisture extremes arriving together hurt more than either alone, with species-rich plots dipping less and recovering faster.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives58
- Confidence47
Extreme drought spread across 44% of Puerto Rico during a rainy season that stayed dry
Puerto Rico held no drought at all three months before August 25, when the U.S. Drought Monitor put 44 percent of the territory in extreme drought and rationing was already running in several municipalities.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Three Pacific cyclones spinning at once match what the spring El Niño outlook called
By September 3 the Northeast Pacific had 15 named storms and six hurricanes against the Atlantic's five and none, the split forecasters called back in spring. A basin tally, though, says nothing about where the rain lands.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives38
- Confidence62
Assimilating water vapor isotopes improved forecasts out to five days in a near-operational test
A University of Tokyo-led team fed satellite isotope ratios into a weather model and got better winds, temperature and humidity out of it, which is the first evidence that a long-theorized upgrade pays off in a setup close to how forecasters actually run.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption4
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence52
HKUST's 4,116-city model finds more than a tenth of sustainability gains beyond city limits
Cities that write emission plans alone are, on this evidence, optimising a number that is partly set elsewhere. The size of that outside share is modelled rather than measured, which changes what a mayor can do with it.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives64
- Confidence44
A Sentinel-1 radar pass caught the Aug. 4 break at Greenland's Petermann Glacier a day early. The two rifts still holding cover about 2.3 times the area that just left.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+9
- Incentives57
- Confidence68
The Sacramento Valley's Aquifers Did Not Just Empty. Some of Them Broke.
A PNAS study finds parts of the Sacramento Valley collapsed during the 2020-2022 drought and have not rebounded, which undercuts the idea that wet years always restore what dry years remove.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives42
- Confidence57