Lloyds and NatWest fell about 2% on Friday after reports that Chancellor John Healey may restore the bank profit surcharge to 8% from 3%. The TUC puts the yield at £2.25bn a year, but the Treasury has not confirmed the option ahead of the October 28 Budget.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 3%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 62%
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
John Healey is poised to raise bank taxes in his 28 October budget, the Guardian understands, with one option worth upwards of £2bn a year. The proceeds would help cover higher borrowing costs from the Middle East war, and the banks have already warned in writing that they could move staff and business abroad.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 57%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
City banks start scenario work on a possible Budget tax after Healey's IMF praise
City AM reported that bank bosses and industry leaders will run scenario analysis on a Budget bank tax, a day after Healey praised banks at the IMF. The sources show firms modelling a range of outcomes, with no Treasury confirmation of any plan.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Healey promises business-cost relief in his first Budget if it can be funded within it
The UK economy grew 0.1% in August, defying forecasts of a slight contraction, the ONS figures show. Chancellor John Healey is promising relief on business costs in a Budget two weeks away, on the condition that it is paid for inside that Budget.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence70
UK GDP grew 0.1% in August, the Office for National Statistics said. The 0.7% three-month growth owes part of its strength to revisions, with the Chancellor's Budget about two weeks away.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 54%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives55
- Confidence72
Mortgage repayments drive the TUC's £13,961 household bills figure
TUC analysis of official figures says UK households have paid an extra £13,961 on bills since 2021, or £2,792 a year. Almost two-thirds of it is mortgage cost, so the figure measures borrowers more closely than it measures households in general.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives75
- Confidence55
Chancellor John Healey is reportedly set to make online marketplaces collect VAT at source for sellers turning over more than £90,000, the Times reported. The Treasury has not confirmed it. Amazon puts the yield, earmarked for business rates cuts, at about £700m against the £1bn reported.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 42%
- Investor
- Investor 53%
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
IMF raised its 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.3% from 1%, and trimmed 2027 to 1.2% from 1.3%. Its 2027 inflation forecast moved further, to 2.8% from 2.4%, and the IFS says inflation will erode departmental budgets before the 28 October Budget.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence75
John Healey did not confirm any Budget measures to retail bosses, while the BRC says their taxes rose 20 per cent in two years. Both trade bodies called the talks positive, and that is the only support on the record for a plan that assumes a cut.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
IMF raises its 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.3%, up 0.3 points from July, a little over a fortnight before Healey's first budget. It told him to stay the course on the deficit, but its warning on energy subsidies was addressed to every member government, so the budget's contents are still open.
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence75
The IFS says inflation could force Chancellor John Healey to add up to £35bn to departmental budgets by decade-end, a bigger problem than borrowing costs. Headroom for 2029-30 slips only to about £20bn from £24bn, so the harder Budget call is on departmental spending.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 53%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
M&S and John Lewis bosses press Healey to ease retail's tax burden before the Budget
M&S and John Lewis bosses are pressing Chancellor John Healey to cut retail's tax burden, with the Budget less than three weeks away. Most of what they want is protection from new charges, so their campaign is a fight to stop retail bills rising further.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives85
- Confidence55
TUC prices the 2023 bank surcharge cut at £6bn ahead of Healey's budget
The TUC says cutting the bank surcharge from 8% to 3% in 2023 cost the UK £6bn over three years. It wants a higher rate at the 28 October budget, so bank finance teams have a scenario to price while the Treasury has not stated its intentions.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives75
- Confidence40
Healey leans toward a £100 warm homes top-up over the £3.2bn levy cut his energy secretary wants
Chancellor John Healey is weighing more than £1bn of energy-bill support for the budget, mostly a £100 rise in the warm homes discount for benefit households. He is set to pass on his energy secretary's £3.2bn plan to strip levies from bills, while officials draft supplier pricing changes for after the budget.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives55
- Confidence40
Bank chiefs meet Healey amid fears his first Budget will raise their tax bill
Bosses of Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and three other lenders make their tax case to John Healey on Tuesday, just over four weeks before his first Budget. Signals from his Treasury leave lenders that wanted the 3% surcharge phased out defending against a rise.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence50