Topic
The United Kingdom's national economy: output, inflation and public finances, tracked through ONS data, Bank of England policy and Treasury budgets.
The UK economy grew 0.1% in August, defying forecasts of a slight contraction, the ONS figures show. Chancellor John Healey is promising relief on business costs in a Budget two weeks away, on the condition that it is paid for inside that Budget.
Reality
UK GDP grew 0.1% in August, the Office for National Statistics said. The 0.7% three-month growth owes part of its strength to revisions, with the Chancellor's Budget about two weeks away.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishersReality
Deloitte's poll of 66 UK finance chiefs found 52% expect AI to cut headcount within a year, but only a third expect it to lift margins. The 19-point gap rests on a sample where the 52% itself is soft by about 12 points.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
IMF raised its 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.3% from 1%, and trimmed 2027 to 1.2% from 1.3%. Its 2027 inflation forecast moved further, to 2.8% from 2.4%, and the IFS says inflation will erode departmental budgets before the 28 October Budget.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishersReality
IMF raises its 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.3%, up 0.3 points from July, a little over a fortnight before Healey's first budget. It told him to stay the course on the deficit, but its warning on energy subsidies was addressed to every member government, so the budget's contents are still open.
Reality
IMF's Global Financial Stability Report warns that an AI correction could be global, citing sky-high valuations and rising debt at AI companies. Asia is rated most exposed after the US; the UK and euro area are potentially more insulated.
Reality
The Office for National Statistics put July growth at 0.4% against forecasts of none, and money markets now price Bank rate at 4.75% by July 2027. Oil and the European Central Bank did most of that work.
Reality